Unpicking the Eurovision Semi Final 1 jury votes and televotes

May 12, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th March

We know the ten countries that qualified out of Eurovision Semi Final 1 (with the Top 6 countries in this semi-final accounting for six of the countries that finished in the Top 7!) but would the result have been different if it had been solely based on a jury vote or solely based on the televote/jury vote?

The results of Semi Final 1 were as follows: Read the rest of this entry »

Which countries voted for Ireland at Eurovision Semi Final 2: Televote and Jury Vote breakdowns

May 11, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th May 2014

Ireland finished in 12th place with 35 points at the second of the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals, finishing 17 points behind the country that finished in 10th place, Slovenia. The result of Semi Final 2 read as follows: Read the rest of this entry »

Voting order for the 2014 Eurovision Final: How to read the early votes to see who the contest winner might be

May 10, 2014

Who are countries likely to give the big points to in tonight’s Final? The table below presents the most likely suspects for each of the countries voting tonight in the order that they have been scheduled to present their votes tonight, based on these countries’ patterns of Eurovision Song Contest voting since the introduction of televoting in 1998. This analysis just looks at voting patterns for the 26 countries taking part in tonight’s final and it must be noted that some of the countries listed below would traditionally give higher points levels to other countries that may have been eliminated this year at the semi-final stage (such as the three Baltic states or countries such as Moldova, Georgia or Ireland) or to countries that are not taking part in this year’s contest (such as Turkey, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia). Diaspora votes that may usually have gone to Turkey may go instead to Azerbaijan (as seems to have happened at the 2011 Final and the 2013 contest), while Montenegro and Slovenia may well be the beneficiaries of support from the Serbian, Croatian and Bosnian diasporas. A full outline of the usual voting patterns of all these countries (including losing semi-finalists in this year’s contest and countries that did not take part in 2014) may be viewed in The 2014 Eurovision Handbook, which is still available in e-book format at the price of €4.99 with all profits (if any!) from this going to the Irish Cancer Society.

Read the rest of this entry »

2014 Eurovision Final results estimate: Undo the journey from Malmo to Copenhagen?

May 9, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2014

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest  and Denmark win in 2013, now that we know the running order for the 2014 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2014 contest will be.

With the numbers crunched, Sweden – who were second favourites before the contest but after the semi finals have been vying with Austria  for the contest favourites position - sit on the top of the pile. If Sweden does not win, the figures suggest that Greece, Armenia, Ukraine and The Netherlands would be then very much in the mix to take the ultimate honours, with Denmark, Azerbaijan and Austria also vying for strong finishes. But be wary. This model cannot take account of actual performances on Final night, nor can it account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the result as the televotes have.

Read the rest of this entry »

Draw positions for the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest Final

May 7, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th May 2014 – post will be updated on morning after Semi Final 2

As discussed in The Eurovision Handbook 2014, and as also detailed on some of the posts on this site, the position a song is performed in at a Eurovision final and semi-final can have a bearing on that song’s prospects, with the general rule of thumb being that a latter performance position is the most advantageous.

Figure: Average number of points won from different positions in the running order at recent Eurovision Finals

Figure: Average number of points won from different positions in the running order at recent Eurovision Finals

9th May:  In the early hours of this morning, the Danish TV producers (DR), who are producing this year’s show, decided on the running order for this year’s Final and it is:

1. Ukraine, 2. Belarus, 3. Azerbaijan, 4. Iceland, 5. Norway, 6. Romania, 7. Armenia, 8. Montenegro, 9. Poland, 10. Greece, 11. Austria, 12. Germany, 13. Sweden, 14. France, 15. Russia, 16. Italy, 17. Slovenia, 18. Finland, 19. Spain, 20. Switzerland, 21. Hungary, 22. Malta, 23. Denmark (drawn earlier), 24. The Netherlands, 25. San Marino, 26. United Kingdom

A few thoughts on this: Read the rest of this entry »

Eurovision Song Contest 2014 – Details on the voting juries

May 2, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd May 2014

This year, in a break from the pattern of the past four contests (in which no details were provided on the split televotes and jury votes of the different participating countries), the European Broadcasting Union is allowing for a greater detail of voting information to be released after this year’s final, in part as a reaction to various vote-rigging allegations after last year’s contest. In a bid to promote further transparency, on May 1st the European Broadcasting Union also released the names (and gender/age/profession details) of the 185 different jurors who will form the professional juries for this year’s 37 participating countries. Read the rest of this entry »

The Eurovision Handbook 2014

April 23, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd April 2014 

The Eurovision Handbook 2014 - my commentary book to accompany this year’s Eurovision Song Contest – is now available to buy! While there is an obvious Irish focus to this book, this will consider the Eurovision stories of all this year’s participants – and also the countries who are not taking part this year but have taken part in previous contests (including Morocco!). This book will look at each country’s history at the contest, identify the other countries that they tend to vote for at Eurovision and also assess the likelihood of them voting for Ireland at this year’s contest!!! The book also looks at the importance of language at Eurovision, outlines some of the websites that are worth visiting for people who are interested in the contest, identifies (what I consider to be) the key dates in the history of the Eurovision Song Contest, and suggests ways in which you can try to predict this year’s winner!

This book is available either in printed format or in e-book format.

Profits from this book (once printing costs discounted) – if there are any!!! – will go to the Irish Cancer Society.

 

Who will make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2014 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests

April 23, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd April 2014

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest and also Denmark’s win last year,  I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be now that we know the running order for the two 2014 Eurovision semi-finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 final.

Read the rest of this entry »

Johnny Fallon and Adrian Kavanagh review this year’s Eurovision Song Contest entries

April 15, 2014

Johnny Fallon and Adrian Kavanagh, 15th April 2015

As posted earlier on Johnny Fallon’s website, Johnny and I have looked at all the entries for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest and given our own views on them. Please note that these are our own personal views and – though I can’t speak for Johnny here! – cannot be taken as sure-fire guides as to which songs will do well in this year’s contest (in the Kavanagh clan, it’s Daddy Kavanagh who seem to have the midas touch when it comes to predicting Eurovision/Eurosong winners…). These comments can be viewd by downloading the following PDF file:

Fallon and Kavanagh’s 2014 Eurovision Song verdicts 

 

 

The Eurovision 2014 Semi Finals Running Order: What does this mean for Ireland?

March 24, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2014: edited and updated on 8th May

The running order for the two semi-finals for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest was announced on March 28th 2014 and Ireland will perform in 9th position (out of 15 countries/acts) in the second of these semi-finals. As with last year, there was no draw to determine positions in the running order with this being decided on by the Danish show producers instead, mirroring the approach initiated at last year’s contest in Malmo. A draw was held in January to determine whether countries would be performing in the first half or the second half of the two semi-finals.

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

This is not as good a draw position as Jedward enjoyed in the semi-finals of 2011 and 2012 or indeed the the draw position Ryan Dolan had in the 2013 semi-final. As Figure 1 above shows it would not, on average, be one of the better draw positions a country can hope to get in a Eurovision semi-final. The 9th draw position would rank as the tenth best draw position to get if based on the average number of points won by acts performing in that draw position across all semi-finals since 2004, as compared with the points averages for acts performing in other draw positions. Can-linn and Kasey Smith will be performing in a section of the semi-final in which most of the more up-tempo/rock acts appears to be clustered, including those from Finland, Macedonia and Belarus.

Read the rest of this entry »


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