Archive for the ‘Eurovision politics?’ Category

2014 Eurovision Final results estimate: Undo the journey from Malmo to Copenhagen?

May 9, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2014

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest  and Denmark win in 2013, now that we know the running order for the 2014 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2014 contest will be.

With the numbers crunched, Sweden – who were second favourites before the contest but after the semi finals have been vying with Austria  for the contest favourites position - sit on the top of the pile. If Sweden does not win, the figures suggest that Greece, Armenia, Ukraine and The Netherlands would be then very much in the mix to take the ultimate honours, with Denmark, Azerbaijan and Austria also vying for strong finishes. But be wary. This model cannot take account of actual performances on Final night, nor can it account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the result as the televotes have.

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The Eurovision Handbook 2014

April 23, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd April 2014 

The Eurovision Handbook 2014 - my commentary book to accompany this year’s Eurovision Song Contest – is now available to buy! While there is an obvious Irish focus to this book, this will consider the Eurovision stories of all this year’s participants – and also the countries who are not taking part this year but have taken part in previous contests (including Morocco!). This book will look at each country’s history at the contest, identify the other countries that they tend to vote for at Eurovision and also assess the likelihood of them voting for Ireland at this year’s contest!!! The book also looks at the importance of language at Eurovision, outlines some of the websites that are worth visiting for people who are interested in the contest, identifies (what I consider to be) the key dates in the history of the Eurovision Song Contest, and suggests ways in which you can try to predict this year’s winner!

This book is available either in printed format or in e-book format.

Profits from this book (once printing costs discounted) – if there are any!!! – will go to the Irish Cancer Society.

 

Who will make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2014 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests

April 23, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd April 2014

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest and also Denmark’s win last year,  I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be now that we know the running order for the two 2014 Eurovision semi-finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 final.

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Who’s who in Ireland’s 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi final? Aka Can Ireland make it to the Final?

January 20, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, posted on 21st  January 2014, with final updates posted on 3rd February 2014.

37 countries will be competing in this  year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The previous post identified the countries that Ireland’s 2014 entry will be facing in the second semi final of Eurovision Song Contest 2014 on May 8th 2014, as well as the other countries (“Big 5″/Hosts group) that will be voting in this semi final.

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2013

This post will look at these countries in some more detail. The good news is that, as opposed to the 2011 and 2012 draws, Ireland would seem to have a good chance of qualifying from this semi-final on the basis of the past voting history of the countries voting in this particular semi-final (see Figure 1 above), although Irish prospects are not as promising as that arising from the semi final draw accorded to us in 2013. Ireland’s semi-final qualification record compares well with most of the other countries competing in this semi -final, with some notable exceptions including Norway, Romania and Greece.  (more…)

Analysis of the draw for 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. What countries does Ireland want to be drawn with or avoid?

January 15, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2013

The draw for the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 20th January in Copenhagen. After this draw, Ireland will know what semi final its act will be taking part in, the countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final and (pretty importantly!) the three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

Trying to make sense of the Jury/Televote split results of Eurovision 2013

May 29, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th May 2013

The change in the rules over the manner in which televotes and jury votes are combined in the 50-50 televote/jury vote system to determine the points that a country is giving has mystified many and caused no little controversy in the wake of the 2013 Eurovision Final, with political leaders in countries such as Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan all expressing concerns on this issue and with Irish people generally bemused at the low one point score for Ryan Dolan from the United Kingdom. (more…)

The real winners of Eurovision 2013 are…well the actual winners, Denmark

May 19, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Which country would be the winners of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest if past voting history/bloc voting patterns were taken out of the equation? Premised on the fact that certain countries come to Eurovision with some degree of an advantage over others due to be able to rely on consistent support levels from some other Eurovision countries due to friends and neighbours voting and/or diaspora voting, expected votes tallies (irrespective of other factors such as song quality, performance, draw position) were calculated based on what level of support each of the 26 finalists would have received from the 38 other countries voting in last night’s final. (more…)

Eurovision Final prediction: It’s Denmark but only by a teardrop…

May 17, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th May 2013

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest ( http://adriankavanagh.com/2011/05/13/g-oh-oh/ ), now that we know the running order for the 2013 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2013 contest will be.

Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for this year’s final: 

http://johnnyfallon.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/please-support-eurovision-handbook-in-aid-of-irish-cancer-society/ ).

With the numbers crunched, pre-contest favourites Denmark sit on the top of the pile, but only by a teardrop. And the figures suggest that Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Norway would also be very much in the mix to take the ultimate honours, with Greece, Italy, Germany, Georgia and Sweden closely in pursuit.

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Who’s who in Ireland’s 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi final?: aka Can Ireland make it to the Final?

January 31, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh.

39 countries will be competing in this  year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The previous post identified the countries that Ireland’s 2013 entry, Ryan Dolan with Only Love Survives, will be facing in the first semi final of Eurovision Song Contest 2013 on May 14th 2013, as well as the other countries (“Big 5″/Hosts group) that will be voting in this semi final.

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

This post will look at these countries in some more detail. The good news is that, unlike previous years, this time around Ireland would seem to be favoured to qualify from this semi-final on the basis of the past voting history of the countries voting in this particular semi-final (see Figure 1 above) and on how Ireland’s semi-final qualification record compares with most of the other countries competing in this semi -final. But the doomsday prognostications of 2011 and 2012 did not pan out and the Irish act did go on to make it to the final, so maybe the reverse will happen in 2013? :o  (more…)

Carlsberg don’t do Eurovision draws but if they did…

January 17, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th January 2013

The draw for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals took place today in Malmo in Sweden. In fairness, it’s hard to see how it could have gone much better for Ireland and what we got wasn’t too far off the dream draw outlined in yesterday’s post.  (more…)


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