Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2014
As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest and Denmark win in 2013, now that we know the running order for the 2014 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2014 contest will be.
With the numbers crunched, Sweden – who were second favourites before the contest but after the semi finals have been vying with Austria for the contest favourites position - sit on the top of the pile. If Sweden does not win, the figures suggest that Greece, Armenia, Ukraine and The Netherlands would be then very much in the mix to take the ultimate honours, with Denmark, Azerbaijan and Austria also vying for strong finishes. But be wary. This model cannot take account of actual performances on Final night, nor can it account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the result as the televotes have.