Archive for the ‘Voting analysis’ Category

Eurovision Song Contest 2014 – Details on the voting juries

May 2, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd May 2014

This year, in a break from the pattern of the past four contests (in which no details were provided on the split televotes and jury votes of the different participating countries), the European Broadcasting Union is allowing for a greater detail of voting information to be released after this year’s final, in part as a reaction to various vote-rigging allegations after last year’s contest. In a bid to promote further transparency, on May 1st the European Broadcasting Union also released the names (and gender/age/profession details) of the 185 different jurors who will form the professional juries for this year’s 37 participating countries. (more…)

The Eurovision 2014 Semi Finals Running Order: What does this mean for Ireland?

March 24, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2014: edited and updated on 8th May

The running order for the two semi-finals for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest was announced on March 28th 2014 and Ireland will perform in 9th position (out of 15 countries/acts) in the second of these semi-finals. As with last year, there was no draw to determine positions in the running order with this being decided on by the Danish show producers instead, mirroring the approach initiated at last year’s contest in Malmo. A draw was held in January to determine whether countries would be performing in the first half or the second half of the two semi-finals.

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

This is not as good a draw position as Jedward enjoyed in the semi-finals of 2011 and 2012 or indeed the the draw position Ryan Dolan had in the 2013 semi-final. As Figure 1 above shows it would not, on average, be one of the better draw positions a country can hope to get in a Eurovision semi-final. The 9th draw position would rank as the tenth best draw position to get if based on the average number of points won by acts performing in that draw position across all semi-finals since 2004, as compared with the points averages for acts performing in other draw positions. Can-linn and Kasey Smith will be performing in a section of the semi-final in which most of the more up-tempo/rock acts appears to be clustered, including those from Finland, Macedonia and Belarus.

(more…)

Who’s who in Ireland’s 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi final? Aka Can Ireland make it to the Final?

January 20, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, posted on 21st  January 2014, with final updates posted on 3rd February 2014.

37 countries will be competing in this  year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The previous post identified the countries that Ireland’s 2014 entry will be facing in the second semi final of Eurovision Song Contest 2014 on May 8th 2014, as well as the other countries (“Big 5″/Hosts group) that will be voting in this semi final.

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2013

This post will look at these countries in some more detail. The good news is that, as opposed to the 2011 and 2012 draws, Ireland would seem to have a good chance of qualifying from this semi-final on the basis of the past voting history of the countries voting in this particular semi-final (see Figure 1 above), although Irish prospects are not as promising as that arising from the semi final draw accorded to us in 2013. Ireland’s semi-final qualification record compares well with most of the other countries competing in this semi -final, with some notable exceptions including Norway, Romania and Greece.  (more…)

Analysis of the draw for 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. What countries does Ireland want to be drawn with or avoid?

January 15, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2013

The draw for the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 20th January in Copenhagen. After this draw, Ireland will know what semi final its act will be taking part in, the countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final and (pretty importantly!) the three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

Which countries voted for Ireland at the 2013 Eurovision?

May 19, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Ireland finished in 26th place in the 2013 Eurovision Final with 5 points and finished in 8th place in Tuesday night’s Eurovision semi-final with 54 points (8 points ahead of the 11th placed country, Serbia). (more…)

Luck of the draw? Importance of position in the running order at Eurovision finals

May 18, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th May 2013

A version of this piece appears in The 2013 Eurovision Handbook – this is still available to download in e-book format for the price of €2.99 and proceeds of this will go to the Irish Cancer Society – see:

http://johnnyfallon.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/please-support-eurovision-handbook-in-aid-of-irish-cancer-society/ 

Song and performance matters in terms of ultimate Eurovision success, although “diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest – though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the draw position they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a late draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. (more…)

Eurovision 2013 Semi Finals Running Order: What does this mean for Ireland?

March 28, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2013

The running order for the two semi-finals for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest was announced today and Ireland will perform in 13th position (out of 16 countries/acts) in the first of these semi-finals. Rather controversially, this was not done this year by means of a draw as in previous contests but was decided on by the show producers, although a draw was held in January to decide whether acts would be performing in the first half or the second half of the contest.

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2012

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2012

This is not as good a draw position as Jedward enjoyed in the semi-finals of 2011 and 2012, but as Figure 1 above shows it is still, on average, one of the better draw positions a country can hope to get in a Eurovision semi-final. The 13th draw position would rank as the fourth best draw position to get if based on the average number of points won by acts performing in that draw position across all semi-finals since 2004, as compared with the points averages for acts performing in other draw positions. Ryan Dolan will also be performing after a female ballad (in Romanian) from Moldova and before a female ballad (in Greek) from Cyprus, allowing his up-tempo dance song a better chance of standing out in this competition. But Ewan Spence on the ESC Insight website actually sees this aspect as a weakness, arguing that the jarring contrasts between the Moldovan, Irish and Cypriot entries means that he “wouldn’t rate Ireland at more than a 50/50 shot right now”.  (more…)

Who’s who in Ireland’s 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi final?: aka Can Ireland make it to the Final?

January 31, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh.

39 countries will be competing in this  year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The previous post identified the countries that Ireland’s 2013 entry, Ryan Dolan with Only Love Survives, will be facing in the first semi final of Eurovision Song Contest 2013 on May 14th 2013, as well as the other countries (“Big 5″/Hosts group) that will be voting in this semi final.

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

This post will look at these countries in some more detail. The good news is that, unlike previous years, this time around Ireland would seem to be favoured to qualify from this semi-final on the basis of the past voting history of the countries voting in this particular semi-final (see Figure 1 above) and on how Ireland’s semi-final qualification record compares with most of the other countries competing in this semi -final. But the doomsday prognostications of 2011 and 2012 did not pan out and the Irish act did go on to make it to the final, so maybe the reverse will happen in 2013? :o  (more…)

2012 Eurovision Televote and Jury Vote Figures Released: An Analysis

June 18, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th June 2012

Figure 1: Map showing difference between televotes and jury votes won by Eurovision countries in the 2012 Final. (Or in the semi finals if countries did not qualify for the Final: semi final votes are standardised so that these are equivalent relative the increased number of countries voting in the Final)

The European Broadcasting Union has today released jury vote and televote details for the recent Eurovision Song Contest final and two semi finals - someweeks later than the 2011 figures were released last year (although this year’s contest was of course held some weeks later than the 2011 contest) - and these figures throw up some interesting findings as was the case for the 2010 figures. (more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2012 – How did the Irish jury vote in the Final and Semi Final?

June 13, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th June 2012

The German Eurovision website, eurovision.de, has today revealed how the Irish Eurovision jury voted in this year’s semi final and final and throws up some interesting trends.

Figure 1: Irish jury votes and actual votes for the 2012 Eurovision Final

In the Eurovision Final the Irish jury gave its highest points to Estonia, followed by Germany, Sweden, Ukraine and Italy (Figure 1). (more…)


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