Archive for the ‘Voting analysis’ Category

Ireland at Eurovision 2015: Loved by the Juries, Killed by the Televote

May 24, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd May 2015

Ireland’s Molly Sterling finished in 12th place in the second Eurovision Song Contest on 21st May, winning 35 points in total and finishing 18 points behind the country taking the 10th, and final, qualification slot, Azerbaijan.  However Molly Sterling fared much better with the jury voters than she did with the televote. This goes against the trend noted at the 2012 and 2013 Finals, as well as last year’s semi-final, in which Jedward, Ryan Dolan and Kasey Smith did much better in the televote than in the jury vote. (more…)

Eurovision: The Luck of the Draw?

May 21, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st May 2015

Song, performance and staging matter in terms of ultimate Eurovision success. “Diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  (more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2015 – Details on the Voting Juries

May 19, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2015

In 2015 (as in 2014), in a break from the pattern of the previous four contests (in which no details were provided on the split televotes and jury votes of the different participating countries), the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) is allowing for a greater detail of voting information to be released after the Eurovision final, in part as a reaction to various vote-rigging allegations after the 2013 contest. In a bid to promote further transparency, on May 1st 2015 the European Broadcasting Union also released the names (and gender/age/profession details) of the 200 different jurors (and 40 back-up jury members) who will form the professional juries for this year’s 40 participating countries.

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No Luck of the “Draw” for Ireland in Eurovision semi-final running order allocations

March 23, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd March 2014

Having finished “Playing With Numbers”, ORF, the Austrian television producers, who are hosting this year’s Eurovision Song Contest, have today announced the semi-final running order allocations for the two semi-finals in this year’s contest. (As of the past few years, there is no longer a draw to determine positions in the running orders of Eurovision semi-finals and finals – with the exception of one to determine whether acts will perform in the first or second half of a contest  – with the exception of position taken up by the Host country in the Final. Instead, the host television producer decides on the running order, ostensibly to make sure that different types of acts are balanced throughout the running order in order to improvement the entertainment value of the show. This is – I would argue – an overtly large level of power to give to the host producers, given that statistics show that an act’s chances of doing well at Eurovision can be significantly helped/hindered by their position in the show’s running order.)

Figure 1: Average points per position in the running order at Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals between 2008 and 2014

Figure 1: Average points per position in the running order at Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals between 2008 and 2014

Ireland has been allocated the second position in the running order for Semi Final 2, being scheduled to perform just after Lithuania, who open the show, and San Marino, who will perform third on the night. (more…)

Analysis of the draw for 2015 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. Which countries does Ireland want to be drawn with and which do they need to avoid?

January 11, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th January 2015

The draw for the 2015 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 26th January in Vienna. After this draw, Ireland will know whether its act will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 19th May 2015) or Semi Final 2 (on 21st May 2015) and will also know the 15/16 other countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2014 – Details on the voting juries

May 2, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd May 2014

This year, in a break from the pattern of the past four contests (in which no details were provided on the split televotes and jury votes of the different participating countries), the European Broadcasting Union is allowing for a greater detail of voting information to be released after this year’s final, in part as a reaction to various vote-rigging allegations after last year’s contest. In a bid to promote further transparency, on May 1st the European Broadcasting Union also released the names (and gender/age/profession details) of the 185 different jurors who will form the professional juries for this year’s 37 participating countries. (more…)

The Eurovision 2014 Semi Finals Running Order: What does this mean for Ireland?

March 24, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2014: edited and updated on 8th May

The running order for the two semi-finals for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest was announced on March 28th 2014 and Ireland will perform in 9th position (out of 15 countries/acts) in the second of these semi-finals. As with last year, there was no draw to determine positions in the running order with this being decided on by the Danish show producers instead, mirroring the approach initiated at last year’s contest in Malmo. A draw was held in January to determine whether countries would be performing in the first half or the second half of the two semi-finals.

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

This is not as good a draw position as Jedward enjoyed in the semi-finals of 2011 and 2012 or indeed the the draw position Ryan Dolan had in the 2013 semi-final. As Figure 1 above shows it would not, on average, be one of the better draw positions a country can hope to get in a Eurovision semi-final. The 9th draw position would rank as the tenth best draw position to get if based on the average number of points won by acts performing in that draw position across all semi-finals since 2004, as compared with the points averages for acts performing in other draw positions. Can-linn and Kasey Smith will be performing in a section of the semi-final in which most of the more up-tempo/rock acts appears to be clustered, including those from Finland, Macedonia and Belarus.

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Who’s who in Ireland’s 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi final? Aka Can Ireland make it to the Final?

January 20, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, posted on 21st  January 2014, with final updates posted on 3rd February 2014.

37 countries will be competing in this  year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The previous post identified the countries that Ireland’s 2014 entry will be facing in the second semi final of Eurovision Song Contest 2014 on May 8th 2014, as well as the other countries (“Big 5″/Hosts group) that will be voting in this semi final.

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2013

This post will look at these countries in some more detail. The good news is that, as opposed to the 2011 and 2012 draws, Ireland would seem to have a good chance of qualifying from this semi-final on the basis of the past voting history of the countries voting in this particular semi-final (see Figure 1 above), although Irish prospects are not as promising as that arising from the semi final draw accorded to us in 2013. Ireland’s semi-final qualification record compares well with most of the other countries competing in this semi -final, with some notable exceptions including Norway, Romania and Greece.  (more…)

Analysis of the draw for 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. What countries does Ireland want to be drawn with or avoid?

January 15, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2013

The draw for the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 20th January in Copenhagen. After this draw, Ireland will know what semi final its act will be taking part in, the countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final and (pretty importantly!) the three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

Which countries voted for Ireland at the 2013 Eurovision?

May 19, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Ireland finished in 26th place in the 2013 Eurovision Final with 5 points and finished in 8th place in Tuesday night’s Eurovision semi-final with 54 points (8 points ahead of the 11th placed country, Serbia). (more…)


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