The real winners of Eurovision 2013 are…well the actual winners, Denmark

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Which country would be the winners of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest if past voting history/bloc voting patterns were taken out of the equation? Premised on the fact that certain countries come to Eurovision with some degree of an advantage over others due to be able to rely on consistent support levels from some other Eurovision countries due to friends and neighbours voting and/or diaspora voting, expected votes tallies (irrespective of other factors such as song quality, performance, draw position) were calculated based on what level of support each of the 26 finalists would have received from the 38 other countries voting in last night’s final. The voting history estimates were then calculated with the actual number of points won at last night’s contest in order to determine which countries especially improved/disimproved on the level of support that would have been expected for that country on the basis of past Eurovision voting trends.

Voting history Actual votes Difference
DENMARK 97 281 184
NORWAY 83 191 108
MALTA 45 120 75
UKRAINE 143 214 71
AZERBAIJAN 194 234 40
BELGIUM 42 71 29
HUNGARY 61 84 23
FRANCE 3 14 11
MOLDOVA 60 71 11
ITALY 137 126 -11
BELARUS 63 48 -15
ICELAND 68 47 -21
RUSSIA 196 174 -22
SPAIN 31 8 -23
IRELAND 32 5 -27
LITHUANIA 46 17 -29
ROMANIA 98 65 -33
ESTONIA 61 19 -42
FINLAND 56 13 -43
GERMANY 62 18 -44
GEORGIA 98 50 -48
GREECE 200 152 -48
SWEDEN 174 62 -112
ARMENIA 166 41 -125

The table above shows that actual contest winners, Denmark, was the country that improved its position to the greatest degree relative to its expect points tally based on past voting patterns, with Denmark’s 281 points tally in the final being well in excess of the 97 points that country would have been expected to win based on previous Eurovision voting trends. Most of the other countries to experience significantly higher points tallies relative to their past history points estimates tended to be mainly from Western Europe, with Norway and The Netherlands figuring prominently among this group of countries, although two Eastern European countries, Ukraine and Azerbaijan, also produced significantly better-than-expected results at last night’s contest.

At the other end of the scale, Armenia’s 41 points from last night’s final was well below (by 125 points) the level that country would have been predicted to win based on previous Eurovision voting trends, while there was also a similarly significant drop in points relative to the expected points tally for this year’s contest hosts, Sweden.


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One Response to “The real winners of Eurovision 2013 are…well the actual winners, Denmark”

  1. William Organ Says:

    I still think that proportional representation is the only way to fix up the Eurovision’s busted voting system. Sweden didn’t deserve to be on the right of the board, and Lithuania really showed that all they have to do is show up on the night, sing flatly, and anaemically sway to bag 17 undeserved votes.

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