Archive for the ‘Eurovision’ Category

Will Ireland make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2017 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests based on past voting histories

January 31, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st January 2017

An initial analysis of the voting history patterns for the other countries taking part in and/or voting in Ireland’s Eurovision semi final suggests that Ireland faces an uphill battle to qualify for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest Final.

The draw for the two 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals took place in Kyiv this morning.

draw

Semi Final draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest (Eurovision, 2017)

In terms of predicting who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/which countries might qualify from these semi finals, various factors can be looked at, but the four most significant ones are:

  • Song quality (hard to glean, but I use Eurovision betting odds as a means of trying to quantify this)
  • Past voting histories (involving the different countries – the semi-finalists themselves and the three Big 5/Host countries drawn to vote in these – that will be voting in the different semi-finals)
  • Position in the semi-final running order
  • Performance quality (both in the (public)  show itself and the previous night’s dress rehearsal/jury final, which is the contest that the Eurovision juries get to vote on).

As only a crystal ball can predict the quality and impact of the different acts’ Eurovision performances at this stage and as betting odds and draw/running order position details are not yet known, this initial analysis will just focus on past voting history as a means of determining which countries are likely to qualify for the 2017 Song Contest Eurovision Final. (more…)

Eurovision 2017 Semi-Final Allocation Draw: What is in store for Ireland

January 25, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th January 2015

As reported on the ESCBubble website, as well as the official Eurovision Song Contest website, the allocation draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals will take place on Tuesday (31st January) morning in the Column Hall of Kyiv’s City State Administration. After this draw, Ireland will know whether Brendan Murray will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 9th May 2017) or Semi Final 2 (on 11th May 2017) and will also know the 17/18 other countries that will be competing against Brendan Murray for one of the ten qualifying slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in the different semi finals will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an drawn/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

43 countries will take part in Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Acts/Songs confirmed to date

January 3, 2017

First posted by Adrian Kavanagh on 3rd January 2017, with subsequent updates between January 2017 and March 2017

At the start of 2017, it was confirmed that 43 countries will take part in the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest, which will take place in Kyiv in early May – the Final will take place on Saturday 13th May, with the two semi-finals to take place on Tuesday 9th May and Thursday 11th May. The line up of countries is very similar to that for the 2016 contest, which involved 42 countries. Bosnia and Herzegovina, after a brief return to the contest in 2016, have to withdraw from the contest again in 2017 due to financial difficulties, but Portugal will return to the contest after a one-year absence. Romania were controversially disqualified from the 2016 Eurovision only a few weeks before the contest was held in Stockholm due to debts owed to the EBU by Romanian TV, but these issues have now been resolved and Romania will return to the contest this year.

We now know all of the acts and songs that will be representing all of the forty three countries competing in Eurovision 2017.

Seventeen (39.5% of the) Eurovision 2017 acts were selected “internally”, although there was a contest to select the song for the Greek act, Demy.   (more…)

Geography of Junior Eurovision 2016 points: Where did Ireland’s Zena Donnelly get her votes from?

November 20, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th November 2016

After one of the most competitive Eurovision Finals ever, Ireland’s Zena Donnelly has finished in 10th place with 122 points!

zena_jescfinala

This marks a number of milestones in Irish Eurovision history:

  • Ireland’s first Top 10 finish at a Eurovision Final since Jedward in 2011
  • Ireland’s first 12 points/douze points (thank you Italy and Malta) at Eurovision since Jedward in 2011
  • The first 12 points/douze points (from Italy and Malta) awarded to a song in the Irish language in the history of Eurovision
  • The first ever Top 10 finish for a Eurovision song performed in the Irish language
  • Ireland’s best performance to date at the Junior Eurovision Song contest

Ultimately, Junior Eurovision 2016 ranked as one of the most successful Eurovision contests for an Irish act during the 2000s. Only three other acts have finished in the Top 10 in a Eurovision Final during the 2000s – Jedward (8th in 2011), Brian Kennedy (10th in 2006) and Eamon Toal (6th in 2000).  But no other Eurovision act has won more points in a contest than the number won by Zena Donnelly in Valletta (122 points) – the closest being Jedward’s 119-points haul at the 2011 Final, followed by Brian Kennedy’s 93 points at the 2006 Final, Jedward’s 92 points at the 2012 Semi Final and Brian Kennedy’s 79 points at the 2006 Semi Final. But where/what countries did Zena win these 122 points/votes from? (more…)

Analysing The Running Order for 2016 Junior Eurovision Song Contest

November 15, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 15th November 2016

The running order for Sunday afternoon’s Junior Eurovision Song Contest was made yesterday evening in Valetta, with a draw made to determine what half of the running order the different countries/acts would perform in being followed by a running order allocation by the show producers. Hosts, Malta, drew their own position in the running order (5th position). Ireland’s Zena Donnelly drew to perform in first position in the Final.

Ireland's Zena Donnelly will open the 2016 Junior Eurovision Song Contest Final

Ireland’s Zena Donnelly will open the 2016 Junior Eurovision Song Contest Final (Photo @ TG4)

Georgia drew to perform last on the night. The running order for each of the 17 countries/acts performing on Saturday night is outlined here, with a brief discussion of how acts previously performing in that position have fare in previous contests.

It is worth noting that this will be the first ever Junior Eurovision Song Contest to be solely decided on the basis of a jury vote, so the impact of the running order may be less significant than would be the case if this contest was partly/totally based on the public vote/televote.  

(more…)

Junior Eurovision 2016: The Geography of the Junior Eurovision Song Contest

November 12, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th November 2016

Looking ahead to Ireland’s second appearance at the Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Valetta (Malta) on Sunday 20th November 2016, this post offers a brief review of the contest’s history, while specifically drawing out the geographical dimensions of this. This finds that the membership of the contest has been much more fluid than that of the (senior) Eurovision Song Contest, with the contest becoming increasingly dominated by Former Soviet states over the 2005-2013 period, having been mainly dominated by Western European states in the first two years of its existence (2003 and 2004). Wins for Malta (2013 and 2015) and Italy (2014), as well as debuts at the contest by a number of more western states (such as Slovenia, San Marino, Ireland, Australia* and Italy) over the last three years, have seen a growing Western reorientation in recent years. Despite this more recent trend, the Former Soviet states of Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Russia, as well as Ukraine, have largely dominated the Junior Eurovision Song Contest – especially over the past decade.

The post also looks at voting patterns at the contest and finds that the geographical (“friends and neighbours” and “diaspora”) voting trends associated with (senior) Eurovision are also evident at the Junior Eurovision Song Contest. Finally, the geography of support for Irish acts at the (senior) Eurovision Song Contest is discussed, as a means of teasing out potential support patterns for the Irish act, Zena Donnelly, at November’s Junior Eurovision Song Contest.  (more…)

Previewing the Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final 2016

May 13, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2016

Following on the previous posts reviewing Semi Final 1 and Semi Final 2, this post will offer a brief review of the 26 acts competing Grand Final of the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest. As in the case of the semi-finals, this contest will take place over two nights, with the professional juries voting on the contest taking place on the night of Friday 13th May, while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place on the night of Saturday 14th May. (more…)

2016 Eurovision Final results estimate (or televote estimate!): To Russia with Love or Going to a Land Down Under?

May 13, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2016

In these past, I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest,  the Denmark win in 2013 and the Sweden win at the 2015 contest, while this same model correctly identified 17 of the 20 qualifiers from the 2015 semi finals (although it proved decidedly less effective in predicting the 2016 qualifiers). Now that we know the running order for the 2016 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to try and tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2015 contest will be. There are, however, a variety of factors (including the problems in terms of predicting the 2016 semi final qualifiers) that suggest that the 2016 Final model may not be as accurate as in previous years, but particularly the changes being made to the voting process that effectively mean that each country’s jury vote score and public vote/televote score will be treated as separate entities for this year’s contest – i.e. each country will award two separate scores – a jury vote score and a televote/public vote score. It is the latter of these two different scores/rankings (i.e. the televote score) that this model should be most effective in predicting.

With the numbers crunched, Russia, Australia, Ukraine and Sweden – both with relatively good positions in the contest running order, a tendency to do well in terms of “friends and neighbours” and “diaspora” voting and very high rankings in the bookies odds – stand on top of the pile. Other countries/finalists, such as Armenia, France and Italy, also figure strongly in relation to these factors, or some of these factors. But be wary!

  • This model cannot take account of the impact of the actual performances on both Final nights (including the Jury Final on the Friday night and Public/Televised Final on the Saturday night).
  • As the voting history statistics are based mainly on past televoting trends, the model cannot take account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the Final result as the televotes have.
  • The voting history statistics for Australia are quite limited and based on just one contest (2015 Final) – a contest that Australia finished 5th in, meaning that the Australia vote estimates could be somewhat over-estimated as regards this particular factor. However, this is offset by the fact that four of this year’s entrants (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia and Ukraine) did not participate in last year’s contest.

(more…)

Eurovision Song Contest: The Luck of the Draw…or the Running Order?

May 13, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2016

Song, performance and staging matter in terms of ultimate Eurovision success. “Diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  (more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2016: Semi Final 2 Review

May 10, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 10th May 2016

Following on the previous post reviewing Semi Final 1, this post will offer a brief review of the 18 acts competing in the second of the two semi-finals for the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest. 19 countries were initially drawn to participate in this semi-final but the expulsion of Romanian TV station TVR from the EBU meant that Romanian act, Ovidiu Anton, was very unfortunately disqualified from the contest, literally days before rehearsals commenced in Stockholm. As in the case of Semi Final 1 (and also the Final), this contest will take place over two nights, with the professional juries voting on the contest taking place on the night of Wednesday 11th May, while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place on the night of Thursday 12th May. (more…)