Archive for the ‘Eurovision’ Category

Eurovision Song Contest 2017 Final/Semi Final YouTube Views

May 25, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th May 2017

As reported on the official Eurovision website (23rd May 2017), 182 million people viewed the three Eurovision live shows (final and two semi-finals) this year. (The number is down on the 2016 level, as the show was not broadcast in Russia this year.)

But, of course, it is possible to watch replays of the show, as well as the different acts, online by means of a number of different mechanisms, including YouTube.

I estimate that, roughly ten days after the 2017 Final, there had been over 70 million views (70,228,171) of the official final/semi-final performance videos for all of the 2017 Eurovision acts via the official Eurovision YouTube platform. (more…)

From Estonia With Love: How Ireland Fared in Eurovision Semi Final 2

May 14, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2017

Ireland’s Brendan Murray finished in 13th place in Eurovision Semi Final 2 (with 86 points). But he only missed out on qualifying for the Final by a relatively narrow margin, finishing 15 points behind 10th placed, Denmark’s Anja Nissen. He finished 12th in the Jury Vote (45 points) and 12th also in the Televote (41 points). Had the United Kingdom being voting in our semi final, it could have been an entirely different story, especially as Ireland won relatively few points off the Big 5/Host countries – France, Ukraine, Germany – that were drawn to vote in this Semi Final.

But which countries did award points to Ireland in this semi final and which countries did not? (more…)

The Eurovision Song Contest Final: The Luck of the Draw…or the Running Order?

May 12, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th May 2017

Song, performance and staging matter in terms of ultimate Eurovision success. “Diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  (more…)

2017 Eurovision Final results (televote!) estimate: Can Italy (or Portugal or Bulgaria…) stop a seventh Swedish win?

May 12, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th May 2017

In these past, I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest,  the Denmark win in 2013, the Sweden win at the 2015 contest and Russia’s win in the televote at the 2016 Final, while this same model correctly identified 17 of the 20 qualifiers from the 2015 semi finals (although it proved decidedly less effective in predicting the 2016 qualifiers and predicted only 15 out 20 qualifiers for the 2017 semi finals). Now that we know the running order for the 2016 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to try and tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2015 contest will be. There are, however, a variety of factors (including the problems in terms of predicting the 2016 and 2017 semi final qualifiers) that suggest that the 2017 Final model may not be as accurate as in previous years (or at least the years leading up to the 2016 contest). The changes being made to the voting process in 2016 effectively mean that each country’s jury vote score and public vote/televote score will be treated as separate entities for this year’s contest – i.e. each country will award two separate scores – a jury vote score and a televote/public vote score. It is the latter of these two different scores/rankings (i.e. the televote score) that this model should be most effective in predicting.

With the numbers crunched, Italy, Sweden, Bulgaria and Portugal stand on top of the pile. Some of these countries have relatively good positions in the contest running order, some have a tendency to do well in terms of “friends and neighbours” and “diaspora” voting and all of these enjoy very high rankings in the bookies odds.  Other countries/finalists, such as Belgium, Romania, the United Kingdom, Armenia and Croatia, also figure strongly in relation to these factors, or some of these factors. But be wary!

  • This model cannot take account of the impact of the actual performances on both Final nights (including the Jury Final on the Friday night and Public/Televised Final on the Saturday night).
  • As the voting history statistics are based mainly on past televoting trends, the model cannot take account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the Final result as the televotes have.
  • The voting history statistics for Australia are quite limited and based on just three contests (2015 Final, 2016 Semi Final 2 and 2016 Final) – contests that Australia finished 5th, 1st and 2nd in respectively – meaning that the Australia vote estimates are somewhat over-estimated as regards this particular factor (especially with countries such as Russia and Serbia not taking part in this year’s Final).

(more…)

Dying to…vote for Ireland? Which countries tend to give Ireland the most/least Eurovision points?

May 11, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th May 2017

Each year, usually after an Irish act fails to do as well as expected at a Eurovision Song Contest, we hear the usual rants about “political voting” or “Eastern European countries only voting for other Eastern European countries”. Most of these urban legends are, quite simply, ráiméis – they do match up with the actual facts, or the trends that can be observed from a study of recent Eurovision voting trends. “Give me facts” said that legend of English literature, Mr. Gradgrind, and that is what this website always sets out to do!

So what are the facts as regards the countries that Ireland is most likely, or least likely, to win points from at the Eurovision Song Contest? (more…)

Dying to Try or Trying to Qualify?: Estimates for the 2017 Eurovision Semi Final contests

May 8, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th May 2017

I have used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contestDenmark’s win in 2013 and Sweden’s win in 2015,  as well as to predict that Russia would win the televote at the 2016 contest (but not the jury vote, or the overall prize). I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be from this week’s two Eurovision semi finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 (as well as the 2014 edition of this – sadly low purchase levels of this notwithstanding…) will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 and 2014 finals. This same model also succeeded in predicting most of the semi-final qualifiers in the 2015 contest. It was not as successful last year, however; in part because of the growing clout/impact of the jury vote. But also because an unusual number of counties that have traditionally fared poorly at the contest since the introduction of televoting (e.g. Bulgaria, Belgium, Austria and The Netherlands) did especially well at last year’s contest.

In terms of working out who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/predicting which countries might qualify from these (and hopefully making a few bob in the process) various factors can be looked at, but the three most significant ones are: (more…)

Discussing the 2017 Eurovision Semi Final Running Order Allocations

March 31, 2017

The running order allocations for the two semi finals of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest in Kyiv (Ukraine) were announced this morning. This is of interest, as one of the factors that can shape a country’s hopes of winning, or doing well in, the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the Host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The Host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  That practice has also been used this year and the running order allocations for the two semi finals of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest were released this morning by the host broadcaster UA:PBCThis post has been updated following Russia’s withdrawal from this year’s contest.

AAEurovisionSemiFinalRunningOrderQualifiers

Figure 1: Qualification trends by position in the semi-final running order at all Eurovision semi-finals between 2008 and 2016

As Figure 1 (above) shows, there have been notable differences between the different semi-final draw positions in terms of the number of acts that have successfully qualified for the contest final after having performed in these draw positions. (more…)

Will Ireland make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2017 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests based on past voting histories

January 31, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st January 2017

An initial analysis of the voting history patterns for the other countries taking part in and/or voting in Ireland’s Eurovision semi final suggests that Ireland faces an uphill battle to qualify for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest Final.

The draw for the two 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals took place in Kyiv this morning.

draw

Semi Final draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest (Eurovision, 2017)

In terms of predicting who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/which countries might qualify from these semi finals, various factors can be looked at, but the four most significant ones are:

  • Song quality (hard to glean, but I use Eurovision betting odds as a means of trying to quantify this)
  • Past voting histories (involving the different countries – the semi-finalists themselves and the three Big 5/Host countries drawn to vote in these – that will be voting in the different semi-finals)
  • Position in the semi-final running order
  • Performance quality (both in the (public)  show itself and the previous night’s dress rehearsal/jury final, which is the contest that the Eurovision juries get to vote on).

As only a crystal ball can predict the quality and impact of the different acts’ Eurovision performances at this stage and as betting odds and draw/running order position details are not yet known, this initial analysis will just focus on past voting history as a means of determining which countries are likely to qualify for the 2017 Song Contest Eurovision Final. (more…)

Eurovision 2017 Semi-Final Allocation Draw: What is in store for Ireland

January 25, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th January 2015

As reported on the ESCBubble website, as well as the official Eurovision Song Contest website, the allocation draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals will take place on Tuesday (31st January) morning in the Column Hall of Kyiv’s City State Administration. After this draw, Ireland will know whether Brendan Murray will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 9th May 2017) or Semi Final 2 (on 11th May 2017) and will also know the 17/18 other countries that will be competing against Brendan Murray for one of the ten qualifying slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in the different semi finals will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an drawn/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

43 countries will take part in Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Acts/Songs confirmed to date

January 3, 2017

First posted by Adrian Kavanagh on 3rd January 2017, with subsequent updates between January 2017 and March 2017

At the start of 2017, it was confirmed that 43 countries will take part in the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest, which will take place in Kyiv in early May – the Final will take place on Saturday 13th May, with the two semi-finals to take place on Tuesday 9th May and Thursday 11th May. The line up of countries is very similar to that for the 2016 contest, which involved 42 countries. Bosnia and Herzegovina, after a brief return to the contest in 2016, have to withdraw from the contest again in 2017 due to financial difficulties, but Portugal will return to the contest after a one-year absence. Romania were controversially disqualified from the 2016 Eurovision only a few weeks before the contest was held in Stockholm due to debts owed to the EBU by Romanian TV, but these issues have now been resolved and Romania will return to the contest this year.

We now know all of the acts and songs that will be representing all of the forty three countries competing in Eurovision 2017.

Seventeen (39.5% of the) Eurovision 2017 acts were selected “internally”, although there was a contest to select the song for the Greek act, Demy.   (more…)