How Ireland fared in Eurovision Semi Final 2. How Ireland voted in Semi Final 2/the Final: Televote and Jury Vote breakdowns

May 15, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 15th May 2016

Ireland finished in 15th place in the second Eurovision Semi Final with 46 points – the last country to qualify, Serbia, finished with 105 points. Australia won this semi-final with 330 points, followed by Ukraine on 287 points in second place and Belgium on 274 points in third place.

How did Ireland fare with the (other) countries who were voting in this semi-final? Based on the details provided from the official Eurovision website, we can see that Ireland were ranked accordingly by the other 20 countries who were voting in our semi-final: Read the rest of this entry »

Previewing the Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final 2016

May 13, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2016

Following on the previous posts reviewing Semi Final 1 and Semi Final 2, this post will offer a brief review of the 26 acts competing Grand Final of the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest. As in the case of the semi-finals, this contest will take place over two nights, with the professional juries voting on the contest taking place on the night of Friday 13th May, while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place on the night of Saturday 14th May. Read the rest of this entry »

2016 Eurovision Final results estimate (or televote estimate!): To Russia with Love or Going to a Land Down Under?

May 13, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2016

In these past, I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest,  the Denmark win in 2013 and the Sweden win at the 2015 contest, while this same model correctly identified 17 of the 20 qualifiers from the 2015 semi finals (although it proved decidedly less effective in predicting the 2016 qualifiers). Now that we know the running order for the 2016 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to try and tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2015 contest will be. There are, however, a variety of factors (including the problems in terms of predicting the 2016 semi final qualifiers) that suggest that the 2016 Final model may not be as accurate as in previous years, but particularly the changes being made to the voting process that effectively mean that each country’s jury vote score and public vote/televote score will be treated as separate entities for this year’s contest – i.e. each country will award two separate scores – a jury vote score and a televote/public vote score. It is the latter of these two different scores/rankings (i.e. the televote score) that this model should be most effective in predicting.

With the numbers crunched, Russia, Australia, Ukraine and Sweden – both with relatively good positions in the contest running order, a tendency to do well in terms of “friends and neighbours” and “diaspora” voting and very high rankings in the bookies odds – stand on top of the pile. Other countries/finalists, such as Armenia, France and Italy, also figure strongly in relation to these factors, or some of these factors. But be wary!

  • This model cannot take account of the impact of the actual performances on both Final nights (including the Jury Final on the Friday night and Public/Televised Final on the Saturday night).
  • As the voting history statistics are based mainly on past televoting trends, the model cannot take account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the Final result as the televotes have.
  • The voting history statistics for Australia are quite limited and based on just one contest (2015 Final) – a contest that Australia finished 5th in, meaning that the Australia vote estimates could be somewhat over-estimated as regards this particular factor. However, this is offset by the fact that four of this year’s entrants (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia and Ukraine) did not participate in last year’s contest.

Read the rest of this entry »

Eurovision Song Contest: The Luck of the Draw…or the Running Order?

May 13, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2016

Song, performance and staging matter in terms of ultimate Eurovision success. “Diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  Read the rest of this entry »

Eurovision Song Contest 2016: Semi Final 2 Review

May 10, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 10th May 2016

Following on the previous post reviewing Semi Final 1, this post will offer a brief review of the 18 acts competing in the second of the two semi-finals for the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest. 19 countries were initially drawn to participate in this semi-final but the expulsion of Romanian TV station TVR from the EBU meant that Romanian act, Ovidiu Anton, was very unfortunately disqualified from the contest, literally days before rehearsals commenced in Stockholm. As in the case of Semi Final 1 (and also the Final), this contest will take place over two nights, with the professional juries voting on the contest taking place on the night of Wednesday 11th May, while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place on the night of Thursday 12th May. Read the rest of this entry »

Eurovision Song Contest 2016: Semi Final 1 Review

May 9, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2016

The post will offer a brief review of the 18 acts competing in the first of the two semi-finals for the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest. This contest will take place over two nights, with the professional juries voting on the contest taking place on the night of Monday 9th May, while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place on the night of Tuesday 10th May. Read the rest of this entry »

Key Dates in Eurovision Song Contest history (1956-2016)

May 9, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2016

1956: First ever Eurovision Song Contest was held in Lugano, Switzerland. Seven countries took part (the six founder members of the EEC, as well as Switzerland – Austria, Denmark and the United Kingdom would all enter the contest in the following year). For the only time in the contest’s history, each act performed two songs. Jury members were, for the only time, allowed to vote for their own country and only the winning song was revealed by the jury – Refrain by Lys Assia – and no further voting details/places were revealed. Only solo artists were allowed to take part, although duos were permitted in 1957. The songs were limited in terms of time to three and a half minutes (with this being reduced to three minutes for the 1958 contest). Read the rest of this entry »

The Curse of Last Year’s Hosts at the Eurovision Song Contest

May 9, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2016

One trend that seems to be fairly consistent across Eurovision Song Contests relates to the often poor performances by countries that have won the contest two years beforehand and thus hosted it the year before, in what many people refer to as the curse of last year’s hosts. Read the rest of this entry »

Sunlight or Shade? Which countries tend to give Ireland the most/least Eurovision points?

May 6, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th May 2016

Each year, usually after an Irish act fails to do as well as expected at a Eurovision Song Contest, we hear the usual rants about “political voting” or “Eastern European countries only voting for other Eastern European countries”. Most of these urban legends are, quite simply, ráiméis – they do match up with the actual facts, or the trends that can be observed from a study of recent Eurovision voting trends. “Give me facts” said that legend of English literature, Mr. Gradgrind, and that is what this website always sets out to do!

So what are the facts as regards the countries that Ireland is most likely, or least likely, to win points from at the Eurovision Song Contest? The trends that emerge show that some of Ireland’s very best “supporters” at the Eurovision Song Contest (since the introduction of televoting in 1998) do, admittedly, include a number of “Western” states – including Denmark, Malta, San Marino, Finland and Sweden, but particularly the United Kingdom – but Irish acts have also won higher levels of support from the Baltic States – particularly Latvia – and Hungary than they have won from the rest of the “Western” countries. Indeed, some of Ireland’s lowest scores during the period since televoting was introduced in 1998 have come from “Western” countries, such as Italy and France.

Figure 1: Average number of points, by country, awarded to Ireland at Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals/finals between 1998 and 2015

Figure 1: Average number of points, by country, awarded to Ireland at Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals/finals between 1998 and 2015

The map above (Figure 1) shows that there is a pretty defined geography in terms of where Ireland has won the most Eurovision points across most of the past two decades, but what seems to be most important here is probably “cultural proximity” rather than “geographical proximity”. Read the rest of this entry »

“I Don’t Speak French…but Zoë from Austria does!”: Language, the Eurovision Song Contest and Success Levels (1999-2015/16)

May 3, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 3rd May 2016

Does the language that a song is sung in matter at the Eurovision Song Contest? A review of past success levels at the contest by language, as well as a review of the numbers of times that different languages have been used since the abolition of the national language rule in 1999, would seem to confirm this. Read the rest of this entry »


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