Adrian Kavanagh's Blog

Adrian Kavanagh, 15th November 2015

The running order for Saturday night’s Junior Eurovision Song Contest was made this evening in Sofia, with a draw to determine what half of the running order the different countries/acts would perform in being followed by a running order allocation by the show producers. Hosts, Bulgaria, drew their own position in the running order, while Serbia drew to perform in first position and Montenegro drew to perform last on the night. The running order for each of the 17 countries/acts performing on Saturday night is outlined here, with a brief discussion of how acts previously performing in that position have fare in previous contests.

1. Serbia – Lena Stamenkovic with Lenina Pesma: This is not an especially good draw to get, based on the results won by the acts that have performed in this position in the running order since the first Junior Eurovision Song Contest in 2003. No country has ever won Junior Eurovision while performing first on the night or even finished in the Top 3, while only two acts have finished in the Top 5 of the contest while performing first on the night. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 10th best draw position to get. Effectively a draw position that usually results in a mid-table position. This is Serbia’s 7th appearance at Junior Eurovision (or 8th appearance if the one appearance of Serbia and Montenegro is factored in). Serbia has yet to win the contest, but has finished in the Top 3 on two different occasions.  
2. Georgia – The Virus with Gabede: In (senior) Eurovision, the second position in the Final running order is statistically the worst position you can hope (not) to get. But this is not the case in Junior Eurovision, where performing 2nd on the night has often been a pretty good position results wise. This draw position has seen one winner and two other Top 3 finishes (and one other Top 5 finish) since 2003 (Bulgaria finished in 2nd place from this running order position in last year’s Final, while also winning the televote.) In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 8th best draw position to get. A pretty good position in the running order, so, for an act that could be dark horses in this contest. One of the most successful countries in Junior Eurovision history, this is Georgia’s 9th appearance at Junior Eurovision. Georgia has won the contest on two occasions – a record only equalled by Belarus – and have finished in the Top 3 on one other occasion. 
3. Slovenia – Lina Kudozovic with Prva Ljubezen: As with the second position in the running order, getting to perform third on the night at (senior) Eurovision is usually a pretty bad draw position/position in the running order to get – proving to be the the second worst draw position to get in a Eurovision Final and actually the worst position to get in a Eurovision semi-final. This is not the case with Junior Eurovision, although no act has yet won the contest from this position in the running order. Two acts have finished in the Top 3 while performing third on the night in past Junior Eurovision contests.  In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 13th best draw position to get. This is Slovenia’s 2nd appearance at Junior Eurovision – Ula Lozar finished in 12th place last year in Valetta with “Nisi Sam”
4. Italy – Chiara and Martina Scarpari with Viva: In terms of the number of times that acts have finished in the Top 5, this is one of the better positions in the running order to get, with six acts having finished in the Top 5 from this position in the running order since 2003. While two of these acts have finished in the Top 3, this position in the running order has yet to produce a Junior Eurovision winner. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 14th best draw position to get. This is Italy’s 2nd appearance at Junior Eurovision – Vincenzo Cantielle won last year’s contest in Valetta with “Tu Primo Amore” 
5. The Netherlands – Shalisa with A Million Lights: This is Junior Eurovision’s equivalent of the 2nd draw position/running order position in (senior) Eurovision – this has statistically been the worst position in the contest running order since 2003. No act has won the contest from this position in the running order, with only one Top 3 finish being recorded by Junior Eurovision acts performing 5th on the night. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 17th best draw position to get. The Netherlands (and Belarus) are the only countries to have competed at every Junior Eurovision to date, making this the 13th appearance at Junior Eurovision for The Netherlands. Over the past 12 years, The Netherlands have won the contest on one occasion and finished in the Top 3 on one other occasion. 
6. Australia – Bella Paige with My Girls: This position in the contest running order has produced one winner down through the years, as well as one other Top 3 finish (Ukraine’s Sofia Tarasova finished 2nd in 2013 from this draw position) and one other Top 5 finish. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 7th best draw position to get. (Statistically this is the best position in the running order (just ahead of 2nd) that acts performing in the first half of the show could hope to get.) Australia are debuting at Junior Eurovision this year. 
7. Ireland – Aimee Banks with Realt Na Mara: Following hot on the heels of Australia’s debut at Junior Eurovision comes Ireland’s debut entry at the contest. One act has won Junior Eurovision from this position in the running order, while two other acts, performing 7th on the night, have finished in the Top 3 and one other act has finished in the Top 5. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 11th best draw position to get. Ireland are debuting at Junior Eurovision this year. 
8. Russia – Mikhail Smirnov with Mechta: After the fifth position in the running order, this is the next worst position statistically to perform from at the Junior Eurovision contest. No act has won the contest while performing from this draw position, while only one act performing from this position in the running order has finished in the Top 3. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 16th best draw position to get. Russia are one of the most successful countries at Junior Eurovision, although to date only one Russian act has won the contest – the Tolmachevy Sisters in 2006 (who went on to represent Russia at the 2014 Eurovision Final). This will be Russia’s 11th appearance at Junior Eurovision and Russia has finished in the Top 5 on seven of the ten occasions that they have competed at the contest to date (including three Top 3 finishes, including the Tolmachevy Sisters). 
9. FYR Macedonia – Ivana & Magdalena with Pletenka: The middle position in the contest running order is statistically a relatively good position in the running order to get. One act has won the contest from this position in the running order, while three other acts have finished in the Top 3. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 5th best draw position to get. Macedonia will be appearing at Junior Eurovision for the 11th time in Sofia. The country has yet to win or achieve a Top 3 finish in the contest, but two Macedonian acts have finished in the Top 5. 
10. Belarus – Ruslan Aslanov with Volshebstvo: As with the 9th position in the running order, one act has won Junior Eurovision from this position in the running order, while three other acts (performing 10th on the night) have finished in the Top 3. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 9th best draw position to get. In some ways, Belarus are probably the “Ireland” of Junior Eurovision. Belarus have appeared at every contest to date (debuting at Junior Eurovision the year before their first ever appearance at Eurovision in 2004) and Sofia will be the country’s 13th appearance at the contest. Belarus are one of only two countries – the others being Georgia – to have won the contest on more than one occasion, while acts from Belarus have finished in the Top 3 on 5 occasions (including their two contest winners) and finished in the Top 5 on 7 occasions. 
11. Armenia – Mika with Love: Based on past contest history, this is a good position in the running order to get, with two acts having won the contest from this position in the running order (including Italy’s Vincenzo Cantielle in 2014) and with one other act having finished in the Top 3 from this position. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 4th best draw position to get. Armenia will be appearing at Junior Eurovision for the 9th time in Sofia. The country has an excellent record in terms of contest results, having won Junior Eurovision on one occasion (2010) and finished in the Top 3 on four other occasions (including Betty’s 3rd Place finish in Valetta last year). 
12. Ukraine – Anna Trincher with Pochny Z Sebe: This is a really good position in the running order to get and seems to ideally position Ukraine’s strong anti-war rock ballad for a very good result at this year’s contest. One country has won the contest from this position in the running order, while four other countries (including Armenia in 2014) have finished in the Top 3 while performing at this position in the running order.  In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 2nd best draw position to get. Ukraine have enjoyed a good degree of success at Junior Eurovision, but especially over the past three years, which have seen Anastasiya Pertryk winning in 2012 and Sofia Tarasova finishing second on home soil in 2013. In all, Ukraine have won the contest on one occasion (2012) and finished in the Top 3 on two other occasions. 
13. Bulgaria: Gabriella Yordanova and Ivan Stoyanov with Colour Of Hope: Is 13 unlucky for some? Well this (along with the 14th position) is one of the few later positions in the running order that has yet to see a contest winner, although two acts have finished in the Top 3 from this position in the running order. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 6th best draw position to get. This will be Bulgaria’s 5th appearance at Junior Eurovision. The country’s best result at the contest came last year, when Krisia, Hasan and Ibrahim finished in second place (but actually won the televote) with “Planet Of The Children”. 
14. San Marino: Kamilla Ismailova with Mirror: This is the latest position in the contest running order to have yet provided a contest winner, while only one act has finished in the Top 3 while performing from this running order position. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 12th best draw position to get. San Marino are appearing at Junior Eurovision for the third occasion this year. Both of their previous acts, to date, have finished in the Bottom 3 of the contest. 
15. Malta: Destiny Chukunyere with Not My Soul: In statistical terms, this is the best position in the running order that a Junior Eurovision act can hope to get. Two acts have won the contest from this draw position since 2003 (Spain in 2004 and Russia in 2006), while one other act performing from this position in the running order has made the Top 3. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the best draw position to get. The act performing in this position will be performing third last on the night – an act performing third last on the night has yet to win the contest, although three have finished in the Top 3. Malta appear at Junior Eurovision for the 11th occasion at Sofia. The country has finished in the Top 5 on three different occasions, but has achieved notable success in the last two years. Gaia Cauchi won the contest in Kyiv in 2013, while Fredrica Falzon finished in 4th place on home soil in Valetta in 2014. With this draw position, Malta will be hopeful of a third Top 5 finish in a row in Sofia. 
16. Albania: Mishela Rapo with Djambae: This is somewhat of a mixed draw for Albania. One act has won the contest while performing in 16th position in the running order, but no other act has finished in the Top 5 from the running order position. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 15th best draw position to get. However, the act performing in this position will be performing second last on the night – an act performing second last on the night has won the contest on two occasions (including Malta’s win in 2013) and one other act has finished in the Top 3 from this running order position. This will be Albania’s second participation in Junior Eurovision, with their only participant to date having finished in 12th/last position in 2012. 
17. Montenegro: Jana Mirkovic with Oluja: This position in the running order has produced just one winning in past contests, but it is worth noting that 17, or more, countries have competed in Junior Eurovision on two occasions since 2003. In terms of the average amount of points won by acts performing from this draw position since 2003, this position in the running order would be statistically the 3rd best draw position to get. The act performing in this position will be performing last on the night – an act performing last on the night has won the contest on three (consecutive) occasions (Belarus in 2005, Russia in 2006 and Belarus in 2007) and two other acts have finished in the Top 5 from this running order position. Montenegro will be appearing in their second Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Sofia, having finished in 14th position in last year’s contest

Tags: Eurovision, Junior Eurovision

This entry was posted on November 15, 2015 at 8:33 pm and is filed under Eurovision, Voting analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.