Adrian Kavanagh's Blog

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th February 2011

There’s various predictions being made as to how the seats will break down in the next (31st) Dail, some of which include the December 2010 Newstalk local prediction survey and others involving predictions being made on the basis of constituency-level estimates based on national poll figures, as may be viewed in my politicalreform.ie posts. But one other way of getting a sense as to what the next Dail may look like is to look at the odds being offered by different bookies in terms of who is being predicted to win seats in the different constituencies. (more…)

Adrian Kavanagh, 24th February 2011

In the version of this post that was finalised in the middle of last week I was estimating Fine Gael seat levels in the mid-60s, with Fianna Fail in the mid-30s. In light of poll trends in the past few days, which in fairness have more or less replicated the trends over previous weeks, and Fine Gael’s continued strong standing/Fianna Fail’s inability to gain any ground over these weeks, in addition to the slight slippage of support by Sinn Fein and Labour’s declining fortunes, and taking into account the fact that Sinn Fein/Labour/the United Left Alliance candidates seat prospects may (especially in Dublin) be hampered somewhat by lower turnouts amongst the younger age cohorts and in working class areas,  I would now call the election results by constituency as follows: (more…)