Archive for May, 2012

The real winner of Eurovision 2012 is…er the actual winner, Sweden

May 30, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 30th May 2012

Who would have won the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest if the advantages helping some competing countries arising from traditional patterns of “friends and neighbours” voting and diaspora voting (or bloc voting) had no impact on this year’s result? This post attempts to tease this out by comparing the number of points won by each country in Saturday night’s final against the number of points that each country would have been predicted to receive based on the past patterns of voting of those countries that were voting in this year’s contest, as was outlined in an earlier post. In a similar analysis for last year’s final, it was found that Ireland would have been the country who would have won that year’s contest if friends and neighbours/diaspora voting had not had an impact. So which country would have “won” this year? (more…)


Money, Money, Money? : Economic weakness, Eurovision success

May 29, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th May 2012

The 2012 Eurovision Song Contest was won by Sweden, a country with one of the highest GDP per capita levels in Europe, while the 2009 and 2010 contests were also won by countries that rank amongst the most economically developed in Europe, namely Norway and Germany. However, the general trend in Eurovisions since the introduction of televoting in 1998 has been for the contest to be dominated by the more economically underdeveloped countries in the eastern part of the continent, meaning that there is a largely inverse relationship between levels of economic well-being (GDP per capital levels) and Eurovision success (as measured by the average number of points won by countries in all Eurovision contests competed in since 1998).  

Figure 1: Scatterplot showing the relationship between average Eurovision points (1998-2012) GDP per capita (Source: CIA World Factbook 2012) by country


Eurovision acts in the Irish iTunes charts

May 28, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th May 2012

While winning Eurovision is ultimately the aim for the different contestants, sometimes the impact of an Eurovision act may be reflected more commercially rather than in terms of Eurovision points won with post-contest single sales offering a good surrogate of this.  The level of single sales or downloads of Eurovision entries can also give a sense as to the impact of the contest on the public, or rather the buying public, in a country. In the case of Ireland, a study of iTunes downloads of Eurovision acts suggests the contest had a greater impact this year as opposed to last year, with the contest winner, Loreen from Sweden, currently (as of 10.00pm on May 28th) occupying the top spot in the chart and Ireland’s Eurovision song, a level of success that was not achieved by last year’s winner.  Jedward’s Waterline is currently at No. 11 in the chart, but would have been in the chart for a considerable period of time before the contest.

The next highest Eurovision act is Ivi Adamou of Cyprus, whose “La La Love” currently occupies No. 20 in the chart, despite the song only attracting 5 points from Ireland in the Eurovision semi final and no points from Ireland in the final. Given similar levels of success for this song in iTunes charts in other European countries, it would seem likely that Ivi Adamou could well be the breakout act of this year’s contest in a similar vein to the commerical success that Jedward achieved following the contest in Europe last year which far overshadowed that of the actual winners. (more…)

Bloc by bloc? 2012 Eurovision voting in the different regions

May 28, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th May 2012

Viewing the Eurovision voting on Saturday night suggested on the one hand that previous trends of friends and neighbours voting and also diaspora voting were once again to the fore in the patterns of 2012 Eurovision votes. On the other hand, Sweden achieved a landslide victory (only two years after failing to qualify for the 2010 Final in Oslo) and managed to win votes all across the Eurovision landscape with every country awarding Loreen Eurovision points with sole (mio) exception of Italy. So to what extent was bloc voting again evident in the contest and to what extent did it impact on Ireland’s Eurovision points? (more…)

Who loves Eu baby? What countries voted for Ireland in Eurovision 2012 Semi Final and Final

May 27, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th May 2012

Eurovision 2012 was very much a case of a mixed bag for Ireland. In the semi final Jedward attained one of the best results for an Irish act at Eurovision during the 2000s while finishing in 6th place with a 92 points tally – in the 2011 semi final (with one more country voting than in the 2012 semi final) they had finished in 8th place with 68 points. Indeed the semi final result was Ireland’s best Eurovision result since 1997 – while Eamonn Toal also finished 6th in his 2000 final and also won 92 points in that contest (spooky coincidence!!!), there were three more countries voting in the 2000 final than in the 2012 semi final.  However in the final Jedward finished in 19th place and won exactly half their semi final points tally (46 points) despite the fact that (slightly) more than twice the number of countries that had voted in Semi Final 1 were voting in the final. By contrast, their 2011 Final result had marked a significant improvement points-wise on their result in the preceding semi final, winning 119 points while still finishing in 8th position.

So who voted for Ireland this year? And more pertinently which countries voted for Ireland in the semi final but switched their preferences for the final? The following table, based on the official results published on the Eurovision website, tells all. (more…)

Who are countries likely to give the big points in Eurovision 2012 Final

May 26, 2012

Who are countries likely to give the big points to in tonight’s Final? Here’s the likely suspects based on these patterns of voting since the introduction of televoting in 1998: (more…)

Voting history and draw positions and impacts on Eurovision Final 2012 voting patterns

May 26, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th May 2012

Other than song quality and the impact of song contest performances, there are two key factors that may impact on a country’s result in a Eurovision song contest – their ability to draw on reliable support from either “friends and neighbours” or diaspora voting and the position their act will be performing in at that contest. In this post, I will look at these factors and tease out what these might mean in terms of the points this year’s Eurovision finalists might hope to win based on these factors. (more…)

Eurovision 2012: New Friends For Ireland?

May 24, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd May 2012

Leaving aside the advantage of our great semi final draw, the previous post on the voting histories of the different countries voting in Semi Final 1 suggested that Ireland would struggle to qualify if previous vote patterns were replicated in this year’s semi final. Given the fact that geography was not working to their advantage, the achievement of Jedward in qualifying for Saturday’s final (and indeed last year’s final) cannot be under-estimated. So what happened and where did Ireland get the votes? (more…)

The Last Will Be First? Eurovision and the Luck of the Draw

May 21, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st May 2012

Song and performance matters in terms of ultimate Eurovision success, but as previous posts have shown “diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for that country. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the draw position they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a late draw position significantly helps a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. (more…)

Who’s Who in Ireland’s Eurovision Song Contest Semi Final?

May 20, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th May 2012

Forty two countries will take part in this year’s Eurovision Song Contest in Baku, Azerbaijan, involving two semi finals and a final with these contests running from 22nd May until the 26th May. Six of these have an automatic bye to the final, which this year will comprise of twenty six different acts, one more than in the previous few years; these being the hosts, Azerbaijan, and the “Big 5” countries, Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom and Italy. The other thirty six countries will be taking part in the contest’s two semi finals, to be held on the Tuesday and Thursday before final night, and vying for the other twenty places in the final, with eighteeen countries taking part in each of these semi finals. Ireland’s Jedward will take part in the first semi final and will perform last on the night, as they did in the second of the semi finals in Dusseldorf last year. (more…)