Archive for May, 2017

From Estonia With Love: How Ireland Fared in Eurovision Semi Final 2

May 14, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th May 2017

Ireland’s Brendan Murray finished in 13th place in Eurovision Semi Final 2 (with 86 points). But he only missed out on qualifying for the Final by a relatively narrow margin, finishing 15 points behind 10th placed, Denmark’s Anja Nissen. He finished 12th in the Jury Vote (45 points) and 12th also in the Televote (41 points). Had the United Kingdom being voting in our semi final, it could have been an entirely different story, especially as Ireland won relatively few points off the Big 5/Host countries – France, Ukraine, Germany – that were drawn to vote in this Semi Final.

But which countries did award points to Ireland in this semi final and which countries did not? (more…)

The Eurovision Song Contest Final: The Luck of the Draw…or the Running Order?

May 12, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th May 2017

Song, performance and staging matter in terms of ultimate Eurovision success. “Diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  (more…)

2017 Eurovision Final results (televote!) estimate: Can Italy (or Portugal or Bulgaria…) stop a seventh Swedish win?

May 12, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th May 2017

In these past, I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest,  the Denmark win in 2013, the Sweden win at the 2015 contest and Russia’s win in the televote at the 2016 Final, while this same model correctly identified 17 of the 20 qualifiers from the 2015 semi finals (although it proved decidedly less effective in predicting the 2016 qualifiers and predicted only 15 out 20 qualifiers for the 2017 semi finals). Now that we know the running order for the 2016 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to try and tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2015 contest will be. There are, however, a variety of factors (including the problems in terms of predicting the 2016 and 2017 semi final qualifiers) that suggest that the 2017 Final model may not be as accurate as in previous years (or at least the years leading up to the 2016 contest). The changes being made to the voting process in 2016 effectively mean that each country’s jury vote score and public vote/televote score will be treated as separate entities for this year’s contest – i.e. each country will award two separate scores – a jury vote score and a televote/public vote score. It is the latter of these two different scores/rankings (i.e. the televote score) that this model should be most effective in predicting.

With the numbers crunched, Italy, Sweden, Bulgaria and Portugal stand on top of the pile. Some of these countries have relatively good positions in the contest running order, some have a tendency to do well in terms of “friends and neighbours” and “diaspora” voting and all of these enjoy very high rankings in the bookies odds.  Other countries/finalists, such as Belgium, Romania, the United Kingdom, Armenia and Croatia, also figure strongly in relation to these factors, or some of these factors. But be wary!

  • This model cannot take account of the impact of the actual performances on both Final nights (including the Jury Final on the Friday night and Public/Televised Final on the Saturday night).
  • As the voting history statistics are based mainly on past televoting trends, the model cannot take account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the Final result as the televotes have.
  • The voting history statistics for Australia are quite limited and based on just three contests (2015 Final, 2016 Semi Final 2 and 2016 Final) – contests that Australia finished 5th, 1st and 2nd in respectively – meaning that the Australia vote estimates are somewhat over-estimated as regards this particular factor (especially with countries such as Russia and Serbia not taking part in this year’s Final).

(more…)

Previewing the Final of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest

May 12, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th May 2017 

Following on the previous posts reviewing Semi Final 1 and Semi Final 2, this post will offer a brief review of the 26 acts competing Grand Final of the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest. As in the case of the semi-finals, this contest will take place over two nights, with the professional juries voting on the contest taking place on the night of Friday 12th May (tonight!), while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place on the night of Saturday 13th May. (more…)

Dying to…vote for Ireland? Which countries tend to give Ireland the most/least Eurovision points?

May 11, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th May 2017

Each year, usually after an Irish act fails to do as well as expected at a Eurovision Song Contest, we hear the usual rants about “political voting” or “Eastern European countries only voting for other Eastern European countries”. Most of these urban legends are, quite simply, ráiméis – they do match up with the actual facts, or the trends that can be observed from a study of recent Eurovision voting trends. “Give me facts” said that legend of English literature, Mr. Gradgrind, and that is what this website always sets out to do!

So what are the facts as regards the countries that Ireland is most likely, or least likely, to win points from at the Eurovision Song Contest? (more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Semi Final 2 Review

May 10, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 10th May 2017

The post will offer a brief review of the 18 acts competing in the second of the two semi-finals for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest. This contest is taking place over two nights. 50% of the votes will be decided tonight, with the professional juries voting on tonight’s show (Wednesday 10th May), while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place tonight, Thursday 11th May.  (This post is still under construction – further details, including a discussion of Lithuania, Estonia and Israel, will follow tomorrow morning.)

(more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Semi Final 1 Review

May 9, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2017

The post will offer a brief review of the 18 acts competing in the first of the two semi-finals for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest. This contest is taking place over two nights. 50% of the votes have already been decided, with the professional juries having voted on the show taking place last night (Monday 8th May), while the public will vote on the televised show, which takes place tonight, Tuesday 9th May. (more…)

Dying to Try or Trying to Qualify?: Estimates for the 2017 Eurovision Semi Final contests

May 8, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th May 2017

I have used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contestDenmark’s win in 2013 and Sweden’s win in 2015,  as well as to predict that Russia would win the televote at the 2016 contest (but not the jury vote, or the overall prize). I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be from this week’s two Eurovision semi finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 (as well as the 2014 edition of this – sadly low purchase levels of this notwithstanding…) will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 and 2014 finals. This same model also succeeded in predicting most of the semi-final qualifiers in the 2015 contest. It was not as successful last year, however; in part because of the growing clout/impact of the jury vote. But also because an unusual number of counties that have traditionally fared poorly at the contest since the introduction of televoting (e.g. Bulgaria, Belgium, Austria and The Netherlands) did especially well at last year’s contest.

In terms of working out who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/predicting which countries might qualify from these (and hopefully making a few bob in the process) various factors can be looked at, but the three most significant ones are: (more…)