Adrian Kavanagh, 31st January 2017
An initial analysis of the voting history patterns for the other countries taking part in and/or voting in Ireland’s Eurovision semi final suggests that Ireland faces an uphill battle to qualify for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest Final.
The draw for the two 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals took place in Kyiv this morning.
Semi Final draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest (Eurovision, 2017)
In terms of predicting who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/which countries might qualify from these semi finals, various factors can be looked at, but the four most significant ones are:
- Song quality (hard to glean, but I use Eurovision betting odds as a means of trying to quantify this)
- Past voting histories (involving the different countries – the semi-finalists themselves and the three Big 5/Host countries drawn to vote in these – that will be voting in the different semi-finals)
- Position in the semi-final running order
- Performance quality (both in the (public) show itself and the previous night’s dress rehearsal/jury final, which is the contest that the Eurovision juries get to vote on).
As only a crystal ball can predict the quality and impact of the different acts’ Eurovision performances at this stage and as betting odds and draw/running order position details are not yet known, this initial analysis will just focus on past voting history as a means of determining which countries are likely to qualify for the 2017 Song Contest Eurovision Final. (more…)
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