Archive for January, 2017

Will Ireland make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2017 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests based on past voting histories

January 31, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st January 2017

An initial analysis of the voting history patterns for the other countries taking part in and/or voting in Ireland’s Eurovision semi final suggests that Ireland faces an uphill battle to qualify for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest Final.

The draw for the two 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals took place in Kyiv this morning.

draw

Semi Final draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest (Eurovision, 2017)

In terms of predicting who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/which countries might qualify from these semi finals, various factors can be looked at, but the four most significant ones are:

  • Song quality (hard to glean, but I use Eurovision betting odds as a means of trying to quantify this)
  • Past voting histories (involving the different countries – the semi-finalists themselves and the three Big 5/Host countries drawn to vote in these – that will be voting in the different semi-finals)
  • Position in the semi-final running order
  • Performance quality (both in the (public)  show itself and the previous night’s dress rehearsal/jury final, which is the contest that the Eurovision juries get to vote on).

As only a crystal ball can predict the quality and impact of the different acts’ Eurovision performances at this stage and as betting odds and draw/running order position details are not yet known, this initial analysis will just focus on past voting history as a means of determining which countries are likely to qualify for the 2017 Song Contest Eurovision Final. (more…)

Eurovision 2017 Semi-Final Allocation Draw: What is in store for Ireland

January 25, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th January 2015

As reported on the ESCBubble website, as well as the official Eurovision Song Contest website, the allocation draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals will take place on Tuesday (31st January) morning in the Column Hall of Kyiv’s City State Administration. After this draw, Ireland will know whether Brendan Murray will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 9th May 2017) or Semi Final 2 (on 11th May 2017) and will also know the 17/18 other countries that will be competing against Brendan Murray for one of the ten qualifying slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in the different semi finals will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an drawn/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2017: 43 countries will take part – Acts/Songs confirmed to date

January 3, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 3rd January 2017

At the start of 2017, it has been confirmed that 43 countries will take part in the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest, which will take place in Kyiv in early May – the Final will take place on Saturday 13th May, with the two semi-finals to take place on Tuesday 9th May and Thursday 11th May. The line up of countries is very similar to that for the 2016 contest, which involved 42 countries. Bosnia and Herzegovina, after a brief return to the contest in 2016, have to withdraw from the contest again in 2017 due to financial difficulties, but Portugal will return to the contest after a one-year absence. Romania were controversially disqualified from the 2016 Eurovision only a few weeks before the contest was held in Stockholm due to debts owed to the EBU by Romanian TV, but these issues have now been resolved and Romania will return to the contest this year.

As of this point in time, we know the acts that will be representing twenty three countries (just over a half of all the 2017 Eurovision participants), but only ten songs have been released/performed as of this point in time. Twelve (52.2% of the) Eurovision acts selected to date were selected “internally”. The remaining selections will take place, or be announced, during the latter half of February 2017 and early March 2017. (more…)