Archive for May, 2013

Trying to make sense of the Jury/Televote split results of Eurovision 2013

May 29, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th May 2013

The change in the rules over the manner in which televotes and jury votes are combined in the 50-50 televote/jury vote system to determine the points that a country is giving has mystified many and caused no little controversy in the wake of the 2013 Eurovision Final, with political leaders in countries such as Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan all expressing concerns on this issue and with Irish people generally bemused at the low one point score for Ryan Dolan from the United Kingdom. (more…)


The real winners of Eurovision 2013 are…well the actual winners, Denmark

May 19, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Which country would be the winners of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest if past voting history/bloc voting patterns were taken out of the equation? Premised on the fact that certain countries come to Eurovision with some degree of an advantage over others due to be able to rely on consistent support levels from some other Eurovision countries due to friends and neighbours voting and/or diaspora voting, expected votes tallies (irrespective of other factors such as song quality, performance, draw position) were calculated based on what level of support each of the 26 finalists would have received from the 38 other countries voting in last night’s final. (more…)

Which countries voted for Ireland at the 2013 Eurovision?

May 19, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Ireland finished in 26th place in the 2013 Eurovision Final with 5 points and finished in 8th place in Tuesday night’s Eurovision semi-final with 54 points (8 points ahead of the 11th placed country, Serbia). (more…)

Luck of the draw? Importance of position in the running order at Eurovision finals

May 18, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th May 2013

A version of this piece appears in The 2013 Eurovision Handbook – this is still available to download in e-book format for the price of €2.99 and proceeds of this will go to the Irish Cancer Society – see: 

Song and performance matters in terms of ultimate Eurovision success, although “diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest – though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the draw position they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a late draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. (more…)

What Eurovision 2013 finalists will get the big points from voting countries tonight?

May 18, 2013

Who are countries likely to give the big points to in tonight’s Final? The table below presents the likely suspects for each of the countries voting tonight in the order that they have been scheduled to present their votes tonight, based on these countries’ patterns of Eurovision Song Contest voting since the introduction of televoting in 1998. This analysis just looks at voting patterns for the 26 countries taking part in tonight’s final and it must be noted that some of the countries listed below would traditionally give higher points levels to other countries that may have been eliminated this year at the semi-final stage (as is very much the case with The Former Yugoslav voting bloc) or to countries that are not taking part in this year’s contest (such as Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal).

A full outline of the usual voting patterns of all these countries (including losing semi-finalists in this year’s contest and countries that did not take part in 2013) may be viewed in The 2013 Eurovision Handbook, which is still available in e-book format at the price of €2.99 with all profits from this going to the Irish Cancer Society. (more…)

Eurovision Final prediction: It’s Denmark but only by a teardrop…

May 17, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th May 2013

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest ( ), now that we know the running order for the 2013 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2013 contest will be.

Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for this year’s final: ).

With the numbers crunched, pre-contest favourites Denmark sit on the top of the pile, but only by a teardrop. And the figures suggest that Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Norway would also be very much in the mix to take the ultimate honours, with Greece, Italy, Germany, Georgia and Sweden closely in pursuit.


The “Curse of Last Year’s Hosts” at the Eurovision Song Contest

May 9, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2013

A version of this article can be read in The Eurovision Handbook 2013 by Adrian Kavanagh and Johnny Fallon

One trend that seems to be fairly consistent across Eurovision Song Contests relates to the often poor performances by countries that have won the contest two years beforehand and thus hosted it the year before, in what many people refer to as the curse of last year’s hosts. (Update: No curse of last year’s hosts in 2013 as Azerbaijan finished 2nd – can Sweden evade this in 2014?)


Please Support – Eurovision Handbook in aid of Irish Cancer Society

May 9, 2013

The Eurovision Handbook 2013, which accompanies much of the research underpinning this page, is out now! Profits going to Irish Cancer Society.

Johnny Fallon

As someone who likes traditions and loves voting its no surprise that Im a huge Eurovision fan. This year, I have been lucky enough to team up with Adrian Kavanagh in order to produce ‘The 2013 Eurovision Handbook’. As many of you will know Adrian is one of the best statistical minds there is and his research on Eurovision is just amazing stuff. We decided that, whether you are a fan or not, the Eurovision contains a lot of interesting vote patterns, stories and fun.

Putting all this together we hope to give you a new way of looking at the contest and raise so money for the Irish Cancer Society while we are at it. All royalties from this book will be donated and we will not be taking any cut from it.

This handbook gives you a run down on each country and its record in the competition…

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