Archive for January, 2015

Who will make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests based on past voting history

January 26, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th January 2015

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest and also Denmark’s win in 2013,  I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be now that we know the running order for the two 2014 Eurovision semi-finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 final.



2015 Eurovision Song Contest Semi Final allocation draw

January 26, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th January 2015

The semi final allocation draw for the Eurovision Song Contest has just taken place:

Eurovision Semi Final 1 (19th May):

Performing in First Half: Greece, FYR Macedonia, Estonia, The Netherlands, Moldova, Finland, Belgium, Armenia

Performing in Second Half: Serbia, Denmark, Belarus, Romania, Russia, Albania, Georgia, Hungary

Big 5/Host countries voting in this semi final: Spain, Austria, France


Eurovision Semi Final 2 (21st May):

Performing in First Half: Norway, Ireland, Czech Republic, Lithuania, San Marino, Malta, Portugal, Montenegro

Performing in Second Half: Switzerland, Azerbaijan, Slovenia, Latvia, Poland, Iceland, Israel, Cyprus, Sweden

Big 5/Host countries voting in this semi final: Germany, Italy, United Kingdom


A look back at the previous post, as well as the next post, will show that this is a rather good draw for Ireland, although it does contain a number of countries, such as Norway, Switzerland and Israel, that tend to be relatively generous towards Irish ballads but that also often tend to ignore the more up-tempo Irish entries.

Analysis of the draw for 2015 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. Which countries does Ireland want to be drawn with and which do they need to avoid?

January 11, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th January 2015

The draw for the 2015 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 26th January in Vienna. After this draw, Ireland will know whether its act will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 19th May 2015) or Semi Final 2 (on 21st May 2015) and will also know the 15/16 other countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)