Archive for January, 2016

Who will make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2016 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests based on past voting histories

January 25, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th January 2016

In terms of working out who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/predicting which countries might qualify from these, various factors can be looked at, but the four most significant ones are:

  • the song quality (which I use Eurovision betting odds as a means of trying to quantify this)
  • past voting histories (involving the different countries – the semi-finalists themselves and the three Big 5/Host countries drawn to vote in these – that will be voting in the different semi-finals)
  • position in the semi-final running order
  • performance quality (both in the (public)  show itself and the previous night’s dress rehearsal/jury final, which is the contest that the Eurovision juries get to vote on).

As only a crystal ball can predict the quality and impact of the different acts’ Eurovision performances at this stage and as betting odds and draw/running order position details are not yet known, this analysis will just focus on past voting history as a means of determining which countries are likely to qualify for the 2016 Eurovision Final. (more…)


2016 Eurovision Song Contest Semi Final allocation draw: What does it mean for Ireland?

January 25, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th January 2016

The semi final allocation draw for the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest took place in  Stockholm earlier this morning.


Ireland Nicky Byrne (with Sunlight) will be competing in the first half of the second Eurovision semi-final on 12th May 2016. (more…)

Analysis of the draw for 2016 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. Which countries does Ireland want to be drawn with and which do they need to avoid?

January 22, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd January 2016

The draw for the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 25th January in Stockholm’s City Hall. After this draw, Ireland will know whether Nicky Byrne will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 10th May 2016) or Semi Final 2 (on 12th May 2016) and will also know the 17/18 other countries that will be competing against Nicky Byrne for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)