Adrian Kavanagh, 25th January 2016
In terms of working out who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/predicting which countries might qualify from these, various factors can be looked at, but the four most significant ones are:
- the song quality (which I use Eurovision betting odds as a means of trying to quantify this)
- past voting histories (involving the different countries – the semi-finalists themselves and the three Big 5/Host countries drawn to vote in these – that will be voting in the different semi-finals)
- position in the semi-final running order
- performance quality (both in the (public) show itself and the previous night’s dress rehearsal/jury final, which is the contest that the Eurovision juries get to vote on).
As only a crystal ball can predict the quality and impact of the different acts’ Eurovision performances at this stage and as betting odds and draw/running order position details are not yet known, this analysis will just focus on past voting history as a means of determining which countries are likely to qualify for the 2016 Eurovision Final. (more…)