Posts Tagged ‘Eurovision running order’

The Eurovision Song Contest Final: The Luck of the Draw…or the Running Order?

May 12, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th May 2017

Song, performance and staging matter in terms of ultimate Eurovision success. “Diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for those countries that can especially benefit from these voting trends. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  (more…)

2017 Eurovision Final results (televote!) estimate: Can Italy (or Portugal or Bulgaria…) stop a seventh Swedish win?

May 12, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th May 2017

In these past, I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest,  the Denmark win in 2013, the Sweden win at the 2015 contest and Russia’s win in the televote at the 2016 Final, while this same model correctly identified 17 of the 20 qualifiers from the 2015 semi finals (although it proved decidedly less effective in predicting the 2016 qualifiers and predicted only 15 out 20 qualifiers for the 2017 semi finals). Now that we know the running order for the 2016 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to try and tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2015 contest will be. There are, however, a variety of factors (including the problems in terms of predicting the 2016 and 2017 semi final qualifiers) that suggest that the 2017 Final model may not be as accurate as in previous years (or at least the years leading up to the 2016 contest). The changes being made to the voting process in 2016 effectively mean that each country’s jury vote score and public vote/televote score will be treated as separate entities for this year’s contest – i.e. each country will award two separate scores – a jury vote score and a televote/public vote score. It is the latter of these two different scores/rankings (i.e. the televote score) that this model should be most effective in predicting.

With the numbers crunched, Italy, Sweden, Bulgaria and Portugal stand on top of the pile. Some of these countries have relatively good positions in the contest running order, some have a tendency to do well in terms of “friends and neighbours” and “diaspora” voting and all of these enjoy very high rankings in the bookies odds.  Other countries/finalists, such as Belgium, Romania, the United Kingdom, Armenia and Croatia, also figure strongly in relation to these factors, or some of these factors. But be wary!

  • This model cannot take account of the impact of the actual performances on both Final nights (including the Jury Final on the Friday night and Public/Televised Final on the Saturday night).
  • As the voting history statistics are based mainly on past televoting trends, the model cannot take account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the Final result as the televotes have.
  • The voting history statistics for Australia are quite limited and based on just three contests (2015 Final, 2016 Semi Final 2 and 2016 Final) – contests that Australia finished 5th, 1st and 2nd in respectively – meaning that the Australia vote estimates are somewhat over-estimated as regards this particular factor (especially with countries such as Russia and Serbia not taking part in this year’s Final).

(more…)

Dying to Try or Trying to Qualify?: Estimates for the 2017 Eurovision Semi Final contests

May 8, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 8th May 2017

I have used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contestDenmark’s win in 2013 and Sweden’s win in 2015,  as well as to predict that Russia would win the televote at the 2016 contest (but not the jury vote, or the overall prize). I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be from this week’s two Eurovision semi finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 (as well as the 2014 edition of this – sadly low purchase levels of this notwithstanding…) will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 and 2014 finals. This same model also succeeded in predicting most of the semi-final qualifiers in the 2015 contest. It was not as successful last year, however; in part because of the growing clout/impact of the jury vote. But also because an unusual number of counties that have traditionally fared poorly at the contest since the introduction of televoting (e.g. Bulgaria, Belgium, Austria and The Netherlands) did especially well at last year’s contest.

In terms of working out who may win this year’s two Eurovision semi-finals/predicting which countries might qualify from these (and hopefully making a few bob in the process) various factors can be looked at, but the three most significant ones are: (more…)

Discussing the 2017 Eurovision Semi Final Running Order Allocations

March 31, 2017

The running order allocations for the two semi finals of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest in Kyiv (Ukraine) were announced this morning. This is of interest, as one of the factors that can shape a country’s hopes of winning, or doing well in, the contest is the position in the contest running order that they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a later draw position will significantly help a country’s hopes of doing well. Positions in the running order had traditionally been decided by a draw up to the 2012 contest. But since the 2012 contest in Malmo, participating countries have just drawn to decide whether they will perform in the first half or second half of a contest, with the Host TV producers then deciding the running order based on what combination of entries works the best in terms of producing a better TV show. (The Host country is the only one that draws to decide their position in the Final running order).  That practice has also been used this year and the running order allocations for the two semi finals of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest were released this morning by the host broadcaster UA:PBCThis post has been updated following Russia’s withdrawal from this year’s contest.

AAEurovisionSemiFinalRunningOrderQualifiers

Figure 1: Qualification trends by position in the semi-final running order at all Eurovision semi-finals between 2008 and 2016

As Figure 1 (above) shows, there have been notable differences between the different semi-final draw positions in terms of the number of acts that have successfully qualified for the contest final after having performed in these draw positions. (more…)

Eurovision 2017 Semi-Final Allocation Draw: What is in store for Ireland

January 25, 2017

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th January 2015

As reported on the ESCBubble website, as well as the official Eurovision Song Contest website, the allocation draw for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals will take place on Tuesday (31st January) morning in the Column Hall of Kyiv’s City State Administration. After this draw, Ireland will know whether Brendan Murray will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 9th May 2017) or Semi Final 2 (on 11th May 2017) and will also know the 17/18 other countries that will be competing against Brendan Murray for one of the ten qualifying slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in the different semi finals will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an drawn/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)