What Eurovision 2013 finalists will get the big points from voting countries tonight?

May 18, 2013

Who are countries likely to give the big points to in tonight’s Final? The table below presents the likely suspects for each of the countries voting tonight in the order that they have been scheduled to present their votes tonight, based on these countries’ patterns of Eurovision Song Contest voting since the introduction of televoting in 1998. This analysis just looks at voting patterns for the 26 countries taking part in tonight’s final and it must be noted that some of the countries listed below would traditionally give higher points levels to other countries that may have been eliminated this year at the semi-final stage (as is very much the case with The Former Yugoslav voting bloc) or to countries that are not taking part in this year’s contest (such as Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal).

A full outline of the usual voting patterns of all these countries (including losing semi-finalists in this year’s contest and countries that did not take part in 2013) may be viewed in The 2013 Eurovision Handbook, which is still available in e-book format at the price of €2.99 with all profits from this going to the Irish Cancer Society.

http://johnnyfallon.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/please-support-eurovision-handbook-in-aid-of-irish-cancer-society/ Read the rest of this entry »

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Eurovision Final prediction: It’s Denmark but only by a teardrop…

May 17, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th May 2013

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest ( https://adriankavanagh.com/2011/05/13/g-oh-oh/ ), now that we know the running order for the 2013 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2013 contest will be.

Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for this year’s final: 

( http://johnnyfallon.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/please-support-eurovision-handbook-in-aid-of-irish-cancer-society/ ).

With the numbers crunched, pre-contest favourites Denmark sit on the top of the pile, but only by a teardrop. And the figures suggest that Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Norway would also be very much in the mix to take the ultimate honours, with Greece, Italy, Germany, Georgia and Sweden closely in pursuit.

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The “Curse of Last Year’s Hosts” at the Eurovision Song Contest

May 9, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th May 2013

A version of this article can be read in The Eurovision Handbook 2013 by Adrian Kavanagh and Johnny Fallon

One trend that seems to be fairly consistent across Eurovision Song Contests relates to the often poor performances by countries that have won the contest two years beforehand and thus hosted it the year before, in what many people refer to as the curse of last year’s hosts. (Update: No curse of last year’s hosts in 2013 as Azerbaijan finished 2nd – can Sweden evade this in 2014?)

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Please Support – Eurovision Handbook in aid of Irish Cancer Society

May 9, 2013

The Eurovision Handbook 2013, which accompanies much of the research underpinning this page, is out now! Profits going to Irish Cancer Society.

jonny33's avatarJohnny Fallon

As someone who likes traditions and loves voting its no surprise that Im a huge Eurovision fan. This year, I have been lucky enough to team up with Adrian Kavanagh in order to produce ‘The 2013 Eurovision Handbook’. As many of you will know Adrian is one of the best statistical minds there is and his research on Eurovision is just amazing stuff. We decided that, whether you are a fan or not, the Eurovision contains a lot of interesting vote patterns, stories and fun.

Putting all this together we hope to give you a new way of looking at the contest and raise so money for the Irish Cancer Society while we are at it. All royalties from this book will be donated and we will not be taking any cut from it.

This handbook gives you a run down on each country and its record in the competition…

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Eurovision 2013 Semi Finals Running Order: What does this mean for Ireland?

March 28, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2013

The running order for the two semi-finals for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest was announced today and Ireland will perform in 13th position (out of 16 countries/acts) in the first of these semi-finals. Rather controversially, this was not done this year by means of a draw as in previous contests but was decided on by the show producers, although a draw was held in January to decide whether acts would be performing in the first half or the second half of the contest.

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2012

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2012

This is not as good a draw position as Jedward enjoyed in the semi-finals of 2011 and 2012, but as Figure 1 above shows it is still, on average, one of the better draw positions a country can hope to get in a Eurovision semi-final. The 13th draw position would rank as the fourth best draw position to get if based on the average number of points won by acts performing in that draw position across all semi-finals since 2004, as compared with the points averages for acts performing in other draw positions. Ryan Dolan will also be performing after a female ballad (in Romanian) from Moldova and before a female ballad (in Greek) from Cyprus, allowing his up-tempo dance song a better chance of standing out in this competition. But Ewan Spence on the ESC Insight website actually sees this aspect as a weakness, arguing that the jarring contrasts between the Moldovan, Irish and Cypriot entries means that he “wouldn’t rate Ireland at more than a 50/50 shot right now”.  Read the rest of this entry »

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Who’s who in Ireland’s 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi final?: aka Can Ireland make it to the Final?

January 31, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh.

39 countries will be competing in this  year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The previous post identified the countries that Ireland’s 2013 entry, Ryan Dolan with Only Love Survives, will be facing in the first semi final of Eurovision Song Contest 2013 on May 14th 2013, as well as the other countries (“Big 5″/Hosts group) that will be voting in this semi final.

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

This post will look at these countries in some more detail. The good news is that, unlike previous years, this time around Ireland would seem to be favoured to qualify from this semi-final on the basis of the past voting history of the countries voting in this particular semi-final (see Figure 1 above) and on how Ireland’s semi-final qualification record compares with most of the other countries competing in this semi -final. But the doomsday prognostications of 2011 and 2012 did not pan out and the Irish act did go on to make it to the final, so maybe the reverse will happen in 2013? 😮  Read the rest of this entry »

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Carlsberg don’t do Eurovision draws but if they did…

January 17, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th January 2013

The draw for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals took place today in Malmo in Sweden. In fairness, it’s hard to see how it could have gone much better for Ireland and what we got wasn’t too far off the dream draw outlined in yesterday’s post.  Read the rest of this entry »

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Analysis of the draw for 2013 Eurovision semi finals. What countries does Ireland want to be drawn with or avoid?

January 16, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2013

The draw for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place tomorrow in Malmo in Sweden. After this draw, Ireland will know what semi final its act will be taking part in, the countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final and (pretty importantly!) the three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  Read the rest of this entry »

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Republic of Ireland’s record in World Cup (soccer) qualifier games, 1934-2013

January 8, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, originally posted 8th January 2013 (last updated 10th October 2013)

The Republic of Ireland has just finished their 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign – one which has proven to be a very disappointing one – and this has prompted me to do a review of the country’s past record in relation to World Cup qualifiers. A review of the facts throws up some interesting findings – in relation to the countries against which the Republic of Ireland enjoy a very good/poor record against in such World Cup qualifier matches, but also the countries that the Republic of Ireland have encountered the most frequently in such qualifiers and those that the Irish have yet to encounter. Read the rest of this entry »

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The United States of NUIM Apprentice-land Elections Task

September 20, 2012

In this elections role-playing task, the students of the NUI Maynooth MA Society and Space class are all vying to be the president of the United States of NUIM Apprentice-land. The electoral process will mirror that of the US Presidential elections and will help the students learn about what happens in the US presidential election process by means of active participation. This will also tease out what might occur if the US Presidential election rules/process was applied to the Irish case!  Read the rest of this entry »

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