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The real winners of Eurovision 2013 are…well the actual winners, Denmark

May 19, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Which country would be the winners of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest if past voting history/bloc voting patterns were taken out of the equation? Premised on the fact that certain countries come to Eurovision with some degree of an advantage over others due to be able to rely on consistent support levels from some other Eurovision countries due to friends and neighbours voting and/or diaspora voting, expected votes tallies (irrespective of other factors such as song quality, performance, draw position) were calculated based on what level of support each of the 26 finalists would have received from the 38 other countries voting in last night’s final. (more…)

Tags:Eurovision, Voting
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Eurovision Final prediction: It’s Denmark but only by a teardrop…

May 17, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th May 2013

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest ( https://adriankavanagh.com/2011/05/13/g-oh-oh/ ), now that we know the running order for the 2013 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2013 contest will be.

Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for this year’s final:

( http://johnnyfallon.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/please-support-eurovision-handbook-in-aid-of-irish-cancer-society/ ).

With the numbers crunched, pre-contest favourites Denmark sit on the top of the pile, but only by a teardrop. And the figures suggest that Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Norway would also be very much in the mix to take the ultimate honours, with Greece, Italy, Germany, Georgia and Sweden closely in pursuit.

(more…)

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Who’s who in Ireland’s 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi final?: aka Can Ireland make it to the Final?

January 31, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh.

39 countries will be competing in this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The previous post identified the countries that Ireland’s 2013 entry, Ryan Dolan with Only Love Survives, will be facing in the first semi final of Eurovision Song Contest 2013 on May 14th 2013, as well as the other countries (“Big 5″/Hosts group) that will be voting in this semi final.

Figure 1: Average points awarded to Irish acts by country in all Eurovision Song Contest finals and semi finals between 1998 and 2012

This post will look at these countries in some more detail. The good news is that, unlike previous years, this time around Ireland would seem to be favoured to qualify from this semi-final on the basis of the past voting history of the countries voting in this particular semi-final (see Figure 1 above) and on how Ireland’s semi-final qualification record compares with most of the other countries competing in this semi -final. But the doomsday prognostications of 2011 and 2012 did not pan out and the Irish act did go on to make it to the final, so maybe the reverse will happen in 2013? 😮 (more…)

Tags:Eurovision
Posted in Eurovision, Eurovision politics?, Geography, Voting analysis | 1 Comment »

Carlsberg don’t do Eurovision draws but if they did…

January 17, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 17th January 2013

The draw for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals took place today in Malmo in Sweden. In fairness, it’s hard to see how it could have gone much better for Ireland and what we got wasn’t too far off the dream draw outlined in yesterday’s post. (more…)

Tags:Eurovision
Posted in Eurovision, Eurovision politics? | 6 Comments »

Analysis of the draw for 2013 Eurovision semi finals. What countries does Ireland want to be drawn with or avoid?

January 16, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2013

The draw for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place tomorrow in Malmo in Sweden. After this draw, Ireland will know what semi final its act will be taking part in, the countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final and (pretty importantly!) the three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act. (more…)

Tags:Eurovision
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United Kingdom releases Eurovision jury vote details

June 19, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh 19th June 2012

Figure 1: United Kingdom jury votes for 2012 Eurovision Final as compared with actual (combined televote/jury vote) votes awarded by United Kingdom in that final

Following on yesterday’s release by the European Broadcasting Union of the total jury and televote scores for countries in the two semi finals and the final and the release of detailed jury vote details for a number of countries including Ireland (as discussed in an earlier post), the United Kingdom today released its jury vote details for the second semi final and the final. While the United Kingdom jury was not in a position to vote for Ireland in the semi final (as Jedward took part in Semi Final 1), the United Kingdom jury decided not to award Jedward any points in the Final, instead giving their higher marks to Spain, Estonia and Malta. A comparison between the jury vote and the actual (combined televote/jury vote) scores from the United Kingdom wouldhowever suggest that Jedward probably got the douze points mark from the United Kingdom televote (Figure 1) and that countries such as Turkey and Lithuania also scored well in the United Kingdom televote.

Tags:Eurovision
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2012 Eurovision Televote and Jury Vote Figures Released: An Analysis

June 18, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th June 2012

Figure 1: Map showing difference between televotes and jury votes won by Eurovision countries in the 2012 Final. (Or in the semi finals if countries did not qualify for the Final: semi final votes are standardised so that these are equivalent relative the increased number of countries voting in the Final)

The European Broadcasting Union has today released jury vote and televote details for the recent Eurovision Song Contest final and two semi finals – someweeks later than the 2011 figures were released last year (although this year’s contest was of course held some weeks later than the 2011 contest) – and these figures throw up some interesting findings as was the case for the 2010 figures. (more…)

Tags:Eurovision
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Bloc by bloc? 2012 Eurovision voting in the different regions

May 28, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th May 2012

Viewing the Eurovision voting on Saturday night suggested on the one hand that previous trends of friends and neighbours voting and also diaspora voting were once again to the fore in the patterns of 2012 Eurovision votes. On the other hand, Sweden achieved a landslide victory (only two years after failing to qualify for the 2010 Final in Oslo) and managed to win votes all across the Eurovision landscape with every country awarding Loreen Eurovision points with sole (mio) exception of Italy. So to what extent was bloc voting again evident in the contest and to what extent did it impact on Ireland’s Eurovision points? (more…)

Tags:Eurovision
Posted in Eurovision, Eurovision politics?, Voting analysis | 7 Comments »

Who are countries likely to give the big points in Eurovision 2012 Final

May 26, 2012

Who are countries likely to give the big points to in tonight’s Final? Here’s the likely suspects based on these patterns of voting since the introduction of televoting in 1998: (more…)

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Voting history and draw positions and impacts on Eurovision Final 2012 voting patterns

May 26, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th May 2012

Other than song quality and the impact of song contest performances, there are two key factors that may impact on a country’s result in a Eurovision song contest – their ability to draw on reliable support from either “friends and neighbours” or diaspora voting and the position their act will be performing in at that contest. In this post, I will look at these factors and tease out what these might mean in terms of the points this year’s Eurovision finalists might hope to win based on these factors. (more…)

Tags:Eurovision, Voting
Posted in Eurovision, Eurovision politics?, Voting analysis | 1 Comment »

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