Posts Tagged ‘Voting’

Analysis of the draw for 2016 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. Which countries does Ireland want to be drawn with and which do they need to avoid?

January 22, 2016

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd January 2016

The draw for the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 25th January in Stockholm’s City Hall. After this draw, Ireland will know whether Nicky Byrne will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 10th May 2016) or Semi Final 2 (on 12th May 2016) and will also know the 17/18 other countries that will be competing against Nicky Byrne for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

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Split voting results for Junior Eurovision Song Contest 2015: Disappointing Jury Vote score for Ireland

December 21, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st December 2015

The split voting results for the 2015 Junior Eurovision Song Contest were released today on the official contest website. In terms of Ireland’s vote patterns, some unexpected results emerge here. Aimee Banks’ Realt Na Mara was viewed as a quality, yet more challenging, entry, which was expected to rank higher amongst the jury voters than the amongst the public vote/televote, especially given that Ireland had relatively few “friends” among the other countries that were competing/also voting in this year’s contest. But it transpired that Aimee fared notably better amongst the televoters than amongst the professional jury voters – finishing in 10th place with 43 points in the televote, but finishing in 14th place with 19 points in the jury vote. (more…)

The Geography of the Junior Eurovision Song Contest

October 29, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th October 2015

Looking ahead to Ireland’s debut at the Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Sofia (Bulgaria) on 21st November 2015, this post offers a brief review of the contest’s history, while specifically drawing out the geographical dimensions of this. This finds that the membership of the contest has been much more fluid than for the (senior) Eurovision Song Contest, with the contest becoming increasingly dominated by Former Soviet states over the 2005-2013 period after having been more dominated by Western states in the first two years of its existence (2003 and 2004). Wins for Malta (2013) and Italy (2014), as well as debuts at the contest for a number of more western states (such as Slovenia, San Marino, Ireland, Australia* and Italy) over the last three years, have seen a growing western reorientation in recent years. Despite this more recent trend, the Former Soviet states of Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Russia and Ukraine are shown to have dominated the contest – especially over the past decade. The post also looks at voting patterns at the contest and finds that the geographical (“friends and neighbours” and “diaspora”) voting trends associated with (senior) Eurovision are also evident at the Junior Eurovision Song Contest. Finally, the geography of support for Irish acts at the (senior) Eurovision Song Contest is discussed, as a means of teasing out potential support patterns for the Irish act at November’s Junior Eurovision Song Contest.  (more…)

2015 Eurovision Final results estimate: Sweden? Russia? Azerbaijan? Italy? Who Knows?

May 22, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd May 2015

I have used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest  and Denmark win in 2013, while this same model correctly identified 17 of the 20 qualifiers from this year’s semi finals. Now that we know the running order for the 2015 Eurovision Final I am going to use this to try and tease out who the likely winners will be of the 2015 contest will be. There are, however, a variety of factors that suggest that the 2015 Final model may not be as accurate as in previous years (and particularly before the new rules on combining jury votes and televotes were introduced at recent contests).

With the numbers crunched, Sweden and Russia – both with relatively good positions in the contest running order, a tendency to do well in terms of “friends and neighbours” and “diaspora” voting and very high rankings in the bookies odds – stand on top of the pile. Azerbaijan, Italy, Australia and Serbia also figure strongly here. But be wary.

  • This model cannot take account of the impact of the actual performances on Final nights (jury show and public show).
  • As the voting history statistics are based mainly on past televoting trends, the model cannot take account for the voting decisions of the highly influential professional juries, who have as much bearing on the result as the televotes have (if not more).
  • There are no voting history statistics for Australia, so there is no real sense here as to how the Australian televote will go, nor is there any real sense as to where Australia is more likely to pick up Eurovision points.

(more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2015 – Details on the Voting Juries

May 19, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2015

In 2015 (as in 2014), in a break from the pattern of the previous four contests (in which no details were provided on the split televotes and jury votes of the different participating countries), the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) is allowing for a greater detail of voting information to be released after the Eurovision final, in part as a reaction to various vote-rigging allegations after the 2013 contest. In a bid to promote further transparency, on May 1st 2015 the European Broadcasting Union also released the names (and gender/age/profession details) of the 200 different jurors (and 40 back-up jury members) who will form the professional juries for this year’s 40 participating countries.

(more…)

Playing With Numbers – Predictions for the 2015 Eurovision Semi Final contests

April 7, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th April 2015

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest and also Denmark’s win in 2013,  I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be now that we know the running order for the two 2014 Eurovision semi-finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 (as well as the 2014 edition of this – sadly low purchase levels of this notwithstanding…) will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 and 2014 final.

(more…)

Who will make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests based on past voting history

January 26, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th January 2015

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest and also Denmark’s win in 2013,  I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be now that we know the running order for the two 2014 Eurovision semi-finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 final.

(more…)

Analysis of the draw for 2015 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. Which countries does Ireland want to be drawn with and which do they need to avoid?

January 11, 2015

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th January 2015

The draw for the 2015 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 26th January in Vienna. After this draw, Ireland will know whether its act will be taking part in Semi Final 1 (on 19th May 2015) or Semi Final 2 (on 21st May 2015) and will also know the 15/16 other countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final. The three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final will also be known after this. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

Unpicking the Eurovision Semi Final 1 jury votes and televotes

May 12, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th March

We know the ten countries that qualified out of Eurovision Semi Final 1 (with the Top 6 countries in this semi-final accounting for six of the countries that finished in the Top 7!) but would the result have been different if it had been solely based on a jury vote or solely based on the televote/jury vote?

The results of Semi Final 1 were as follows: (more…)

Which countries voted for Ireland at Eurovision Semi Final 2: Televote and Jury Vote breakdowns

May 11, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 11th May 2014

Ireland finished in 12th place with 35 points at the second of the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals, finishing 17 points behind the country that finished in 10th place, Slovenia. The result of Semi Final 2 read as follows: (more…)