Posts Tagged ‘Voting’

Draw positions for the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest Final

May 7, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th May 2014 – post will be updated on morning after Semi Final 2

As discussed in The Eurovision Handbook 2014, and as also detailed on some of the posts on this site, the position a song is performed in at a Eurovision final and semi-final can have a bearing on that song’s prospects, with the general rule of thumb being that a latter performance position is the most advantageous.

Figure: Average number of points won from different positions in the running order at recent Eurovision Finals

Figure: Average number of points won from different positions in the running order at recent Eurovision Finals

9th May:  In the early hours of this morning, the Danish TV producers (DR), who are producing this year’s show, decided on the running order for this year’s Final and it is:

1. Ukraine, 2. Belarus, 3. Azerbaijan, 4. Iceland, 5. Norway, 6. Romania, 7. Armenia, 8. Montenegro, 9. Poland, 10. Greece, 11. Austria, 12. Germany, 13. Sweden, 14. France, 15. Russia, 16. Italy, 17. Slovenia, 18. Finland, 19. Spain, 20. Switzerland, 21. Hungary, 22. Malta, 23. Denmark (drawn earlier), 24. The Netherlands, 25. San Marino, 26. United Kingdom

A few thoughts on this: (more…)

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Eurovision Song Contest 2014 – Details on the voting juries

May 2, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd May 2014

This year, in a break from the pattern of the past four contests (in which no details were provided on the split televotes and jury votes of the different participating countries), the European Broadcasting Union is allowing for a greater detail of voting information to be released after this year’s final, in part as a reaction to various vote-rigging allegations after last year’s contest. In a bid to promote further transparency, on May 1st the European Broadcasting Union also released the names (and gender/age/profession details) of the 185 different jurors who will form the professional juries for this year’s 37 participating countries. (more…)

Who will make it to the Eurovision Song Contest 2014 Final? Predictions for the Semi Final contests

April 23, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd April 2014

As I used this model to successfully predict the Azerbaijan win at the 2011 contest and also Denmark’s win last year,  I am going to use this to tease out who the likely qualifiers will be now that we know the running order for the two 2014 Eurovision semi-finals. Those of you who have read The Eurovision Handbook 2013 will know that I used this same model to (sort of!) successfully predict most of the qualifiers for the 2013 final.

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The Eurovision 2014 Semi Finals Running Order: What does this mean for Ireland?

March 24, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2014: edited and updated on 8th May

The running order for the two semi-finals for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest was announced on March 28th 2014 and Ireland will perform in 9th position (out of 15 countries/acts) in the second of these semi-finals. As with last year, there was no draw to determine positions in the running order with this being decided on by the Danish show producers instead, mirroring the approach initiated at last year’s contest in Malmo. A draw was held in January to determine whether countries would be performing in the first half or the second half of the two semi-finals.

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2013

This is not as good a draw position as Jedward enjoyed in the semi-finals of 2011 and 2012 or indeed the the draw position Ryan Dolan had in the 2013 semi-final. As Figure 1 above shows it would not, on average, be one of the better draw positions a country can hope to get in a Eurovision semi-final. The 9th draw position would rank as the tenth best draw position to get if based on the average number of points won by acts performing in that draw position across all semi-finals since 2004, as compared with the points averages for acts performing in other draw positions. Can-linn and Kasey Smith will be performing in a section of the semi-final in which most of the more up-tempo/rock acts appears to be clustered, including those from Finland, Macedonia and Belarus.

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Analysis of the draw for 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals. What countries does Ireland want to be drawn with or avoid?

January 15, 2014

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th January 2013

The draw for the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest semi finals takes place on Monday 20th January in Copenhagen. After this draw, Ireland will know what semi final its act will be taking part in, the countries that will be competing against this act for one of the ten qualifier slots from this semi final and (pretty importantly!) the three Big 5/Host countries that will have the right to vote in this semi final. This post will assess the possibilities facing Ireland ahead of this draw and pinpoint what would be an ideal/nightmare draw for the Irish act.  (more…)

Trying to make sense of the Jury/Televote split results of Eurovision 2013

May 29, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 29th May 2013

The change in the rules over the manner in which televotes and jury votes are combined in the 50-50 televote/jury vote system to determine the points that a country is giving has mystified many and caused no little controversy in the wake of the 2013 Eurovision Final, with political leaders in countries such as Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan all expressing concerns on this issue and with Irish people generally bemused at the low one point score for Ryan Dolan from the United Kingdom. (more…)

The real winners of Eurovision 2013 are…well the actual winners, Denmark

May 19, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th May 2013

Which country would be the winners of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest if past voting history/bloc voting patterns were taken out of the equation? Premised on the fact that certain countries come to Eurovision with some degree of an advantage over others due to be able to rely on consistent support levels from some other Eurovision countries due to friends and neighbours voting and/or diaspora voting, expected votes tallies (irrespective of other factors such as song quality, performance, draw position) were calculated based on what level of support each of the 26 finalists would have received from the 38 other countries voting in last night’s final. (more…)

Eurovision 2013 Semi Finals Running Order: What does this mean for Ireland?

March 28, 2013

Adrian Kavanagh, 28th March 2013

The running order for the two semi-finals for the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest was announced today and Ireland will perform in 13th position (out of 16 countries/acts) in the first of these semi-finals. Rather controversially, this was not done this year by means of a draw as in previous contests but was decided on by the show producers, although a draw was held in January to decide whether acts would be performing in the first half or the second half of the contest.

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2012

Figure 1: Average points by draw position in Eurovision semi-finals, 2004-2012

This is not as good a draw position as Jedward enjoyed in the semi-finals of 2011 and 2012, but as Figure 1 above shows it is still, on average, one of the better draw positions a country can hope to get in a Eurovision semi-final. The 13th draw position would rank as the fourth best draw position to get if based on the average number of points won by acts performing in that draw position across all semi-finals since 2004, as compared with the points averages for acts performing in other draw positions. Ryan Dolan will also be performing after a female ballad (in Romanian) from Moldova and before a female ballad (in Greek) from Cyprus, allowing his up-tempo dance song a better chance of standing out in this competition. But Ewan Spence on the ESC Insight website actually sees this aspect as a weakness, arguing that the jarring contrasts between the Moldovan, Irish and Cypriot entries means that he “wouldn’t rate Ireland at more than a 50/50 shot right now”.  (more…)

Eurovision Song Contest 2012 – How did the Irish jury vote in the Final and Semi Final?

June 13, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th June 2012

The German Eurovision website, eurovision.de, has today revealed how the Irish Eurovision jury voted in this year’s semi final and final and throws up some interesting trends.

Figure 1: Irish jury votes and actual votes for the 2012 Eurovision Final

In the Eurovision Final the Irish jury gave its highest points to Estonia, followed by Germany, Sweden, Ukraine and Italy (Figure 1). (more…)

Voting history and draw positions and impacts on Eurovision Final 2012 voting patterns

May 26, 2012

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th May 2012

Other than song quality and the impact of song contest performances, there are two key factors that may impact on a country’s result in a Eurovision song contest – their ability to draw on reliable support from either “friends and neighbours” or diaspora voting and the position their act will be performing in at that contest. In this post, I will look at these factors and tease out what these might mean in terms of the points this year’s Eurovision finalists might hope to win based on these factors. (more…)